SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

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DominicConnor
Topic Author
Posts: 11684
Joined: July 14th, 2002, 3:00 am

### Shorting Microsoft

The thing is that MS did something that I believe will cause catastrophic damage to their franchise, indeed it was so shockingly dumb that there is some doubt in my mind that they really intend to destroy themselves this way.It's not insider information, in fact it is on their website and misinterpretations of the calamity have appeared in the tech press who see it as a small error, whereas I believe if executed would mean there was proably no Windows 9 and the pricing of MS would be it's breakup/cash pile value, not as a going single concern.Basically we're talking about a Blackberry/Rim or Nokia level decline and for structually similar reasons. MS is still at heart a tech stock, by that I mean that it's fee revenues that it can depend upon from one year to the next even if it ships no new successful products are quite small. Yes it will be making money for client access licences for gthings like SQL server for 20 years from now, but that won't support a beast as big as MS.

MattF
Posts: 925
Joined: March 14th, 2003, 7:15 pm

As much as I'd love this to come true, it seems unlikely. If M$were perceived to be heading off a cliff they have enough resources to execute an abrupt change in course.Anyway to answer your question, in the UK gains from CFDs are liable for capital gains tax while gains from spread betting are "gambling" and are tax-free. Therefore I would strongly suggest looking at spread betting with IG Index or similar. Last edited by MattF on June 18th, 2012, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total. Catch22_av Posts: 63 Joined: May 14th, 2009, 6:22 am ### Shorting Microsoft Dominic - Is this the beginning ?QuoteMicrosoft has reported a loss of$492 million in the June quarter due to a non-cash writedown of $6.2 billion related to non-performance of online advertising business. Last edited by Catch22_av on July 19th, 2012, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total. rmax Posts: 6080 Joined: December 8th, 2005, 9:31 am ### Shorting Microsoft Down 1% at midday... ppauper Posts: 70239 Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm ### Shorting Microsoft QuoteOriginally posted by: rmaxDown 1% at midday...dom was forecasting down 25 to 50% so if this is the beginning, it has a ways to go rmax Posts: 6080 Joined: December 8th, 2005, 9:31 am ### Shorting Microsoft 0xB16B00B5 willsmith Posts: 281 Joined: January 14th, 2008, 11:59 pm ### Shorting Microsoft I too am short MS because I think Win8 will be the usual unwelcome upgrade - the more different it looks to corporate desktops, the more people will hold off. I'm guessing there are plenty of people still hoping to stick with WinXP for a few more years.As far as I know, MS consists of 2 cash cows : the operating system sales, and the Office sales. They bring in billions a quarter. Everything else microsoft does is just some guys experimenting with loss-leaders. Even the xbox took them many years to turn cash positive - any other company would have gone broke in the process.So their financial standing basically boils down to whether they can push corporates to upgrade Windows and Office and at what rate. I am guessing the Office 2007 to Office 2010 transition is beginning, no doubt 2010 files won't look quite right on 2007 so the simple thing to do is upgrade the whole department once you hit critical mass. MattF Posts: 925 Joined: March 14th, 2003, 7:15 pm ### Shorting Microsoft QuoteOriginally posted by: DominicConnorI rarely trade equities on my own account, but have now become convinced that M$ shares will bomb next year (my guess is Q3)By bomb, I mean 25-50% off current level.So what went wrong? MSFT was just over $28 when you made this prediction, has never been below$26 since, and is currently $41. tagoma Posts: 18402 Joined: February 21st, 2010, 12:58 pm ### Shorting Microsoft QuoteOriginally posted by: MattFQuoteOriginally posted by: DominicConnorI rarely trade equities on my own account, but have now become convinced that M$ shares will bomb next year (my guess is Q3)By bomb, I mean 25-50% off current level.So what went wrong? MSFT was just over $28 when you made this prediction, has never been below$26 since, and is currently $41.First, there were rumors Big Bill would come back. Then, Big Bill came back? ppauper Posts: 70239 Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm ### Shorting Microsoft QuoteOriginally posted by: MattFQuoteOriginally posted by: DominicConnorI rarely trade equities on my own account, but have now become convinced that M$ shares will bomb next year (my guess is Q3)By bomb, I mean 25-50% off current level.So what went wrong? MSFT was just over $28 when you made this prediction, has never been below$26 since, and is currently $41.and DominicConnor posted that on Thu Jun 07, 2012, which is 2 years ago now rmax Posts: 6080 Joined: December 8th, 2005, 9:31 am ### Shorting Microsoft QuoteOriginally posted by: MattFQuoteOriginally posted by: DominicConnorI rarely trade equities on my own account, but have now become convinced that M$ shares will bomb next year (my guess is Q3)By bomb, I mean 25-50% off current level.So what went wrong? MSFT was just over $28 when you made this prediction, has never been below$26 since, and is currently $41.Errr. let me think about that for 10^-9 seconds: I LOVE THIS FIRM - but I am goingThere was also 2 years ago a feeling that Apple was untouchable, and people were not thinking that every other software and hardware vendor that was not Apple was not looking to take them out.Don't get me wrong. MS still have some deep structual problems, but they are in better shape now. ppauper Posts: 70239 Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm ### Shorting Microsoft QuoteOriginally posted by: rmaxQuoteOriginally posted by: MattFQuoteOriginally posted by: DominicConnorI rarely trade equities on my own account, but have now become convinced that M$ shares will bomb next year (my guess is Q3)By bomb, I mean 25-50% off current level.So what went wrong? MSFT was just over $28 when you made this prediction, has never been below$26 since, and is currently \$41.Errr. let me think about that for 10^-9 seconds: I LOVE THIS FIRM - but I am goingthe headline on that link was"Links 23 Aug. Steve Ballmer Announces Resignation, Microsoft Stock Soars And No It Won't Be Bill Gates"if that was the event DominicConnor was thinking of, he got the direction of the move exactly wrongThere was also 2 years ago a feeling that Apple was untouchable, and people were not thinking that every other software and hardware vendor that was not Apple was not looking to take them out.Don't get me wrong. MS still have some deep structual problems, but they are in better shape now.

rmax
Posts: 6080
Joined: December 8th, 2005, 9:31 am

### Shorting Microsoft

I think Dom was thinking of something else. I think Ballmer leaving was what changed the prediciton as it was unforseen.

Hansi
Posts: 3300
Joined: January 25th, 2010, 11:47 am

### Shorting Microsoft

QuoteOriginally posted by: rmaxI think Dom was thinking of something else. I think Ballmer leaving was what changed the prediciton as it was unforseen.Well quite a lot of the changes that started in the 24 months before Balmer left are what changed things around but the didn't really become public till he left.

rmax
Posts: 6080
Joined: December 8th, 2005, 9:31 am

### Shorting Microsoft

QuoteOriginally posted by: HansiQuoteOriginally posted by: rmaxI think Dom was thinking of something else. I think Ballmer leaving was what changed the prediciton as it was unforseen.Well quite a lot of the changes that started in the 24 months before Balmer left are what changed things around but the didn't really become public till he left.Fair point.