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Paul
Posts: 10922
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

### Re: Models for Covid-19

These models are in Jim Murray's book of 30 years ago. Again, trivial to write down. Difficult to estimate parameters. And they all look the same. Hard to say which is the best.

Cuchulainn
Topic Author
Posts: 63413
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
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### Re: Models for Covid-19

Oil and gas is easier.
My C++ Boost code gives
262537412640768743.999999999999250072597198185688879353856337336990862707537410378210647910118607313

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Paul
Posts: 10922
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

### Re: Models for Covid-19

We can sort of see the lag between cases and deaths in the worldometers data. South Korea is therefore interesting because cases have been level for a few weeks, as have deaths. From this it looks like the death rate is about 6%. Of course it could be less if not all cases are reported or if death is attributed to the virus in "error" ("with" rather than "from"). But equally it could be higher (again distinction between "with" and "from").

Maybe I am reading it wrong but the graph of  Outcome of Cases says to me the death rate is trending down from 2.88% (Apr 1 value), so likely below that level. If people take at least a month to die, then the current deaths from the chart you reference are more likely coming from the surge period when daily new cases were around 500. That would put the death rate around 1.5%, a more plausible ultimate asymptote to the Outcome of Cases chart.
Number of new cases in South Korea has plummeted but number of new deaths hasn't changed much. Their treatment is getting worse!

zeta
Posts: 1973
Joined: September 27th, 2005, 3:25 pm
Location: Houston, TX
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### Re: Models for Covid-19

Oil and gas is easier.
In the good old days when it literally gushed from wells and there was no self loathing over driving a gasoline powered vehicle, it was all ADI and peaceman + rachford. As it gets harder to extract and the price plummets due a generally flooded market and lower demand, it's not unusual to see some path integrals and feynman diagrams. When someone starts suggesting we apply string theory, that will be my cue to leave and head back to silicon valley.

Cuchulainn
Topic Author
Posts: 63413
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: Models for Covid-19

My C++ Boost code gives
262537412640768743.999999999999250072597198185688879353856337336990862707537410378210647910118607313

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Paul
Posts: 10922
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

### Re: Models for Covid-19

The WHO and the UN have long passed their ‘best before’ date.

Is it true that Neil Ferguson forecast 200 million deaths from bird flu?

Cuchulainn
Topic Author
Posts: 63413
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: Models for Covid-19

The WHO and the UN have long passed their ‘best before’ date.

Is it true that Neil Ferguson forecast 200 million deaths from bird flu?
Humans or birds?
My C++ Boost code gives
262537412640768743.999999999999250072597198185688879353856337336990862707537410378210647910118607313

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Cuchulainn
Topic Author
Posts: 63413
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: Models for Covid-19

Oil and gas is easier.
In the good old days when it literally gushed from wells and there was no self loathing over driving a gasoline powered vehicle, it was all ADI and peaceman + rachford. As it gets harder to extract and the price plummets due a generally flooded market and lower demand, it's not unusual to see some path integrals and feynman diagrams. When someone starts suggesting we apply string theory, that will be my cue to leave and head back to silicon valley.
Let us not forget the late great Jim Douglas, Jr. as well.
In the 60s/70s it was ADI versus LOD (locally 1d) aka Soviet Splitting methods. Basically, ADI breaks down and has to be modified.

ADI $\neq$ ADE.

BTW The Craig-Sneyd FDM 1989 (a standard in finance) was invented by A.A. Samarski in 1964 (no translation until years later).

Another era(s).
My C++ Boost code gives
262537412640768743.999999999999250072597198185688879353856337336990862707537410378210647910118607313

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Paul
Posts: 10922
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

### Re: Models for Covid-19

The WHO and the UN have long passed their ‘best before’ date.

Is it true that Neil Ferguson forecast 200 million deaths from bird flu?
Humans or birds?
Good point. Maybe that’s what he meant. I do know that millions of birds were slaughtered, just in case, as you do.

Anyway, 455 humans died.

Cuchulainn
Topic Author
Posts: 63413
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: Models for Covid-19

Can lockdown quash the contagion? - a simple compartmental microsimulation model of epidemics written in a scripting language

My C++ Boost code gives
262537412640768743.999999999999250072597198185688879353856337336990862707537410378210647910118607313

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Cuchulainn
Topic Author
Posts: 63413
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: Models for Covid-19

Iceland lab's testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases have no symptoms

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html

Many have observed that Iceland's small population helps it to helps it to carry out widescale testing, but Stefánsson disagrees. "It's nothing to do with the size of the population, this has to do with how well prepared it was" for the pandemic, he says.

He adds that many developed countries have an "amazing collection of talent" who could have "industrialized tests like this a long time ago" but "behaved like nothing was happening."

He's saying that scientists need a manger.
My C++ Boost code gives
262537412640768743.999999999999250072597198185688879353856337336990862707537410378210647910118607313

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Paul
Posts: 10922
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

### Re: Models for Covid-19

Brutal.

Cuchulainn
Topic Author
Posts: 63413
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: Models for Covid-19

Brutal.
OMG
You weren't joking about 200 million.

Q3: There was only 1 case of foot and mouth in Ireland and that was in my village. The whole placed was sealed  off (we were on vacation there when it occurred) big time and all the 30,000 sheep in the Cooley peninsula were culled, But not elsewhere AFAIR. For two years the hills blossomed again because no sheep to destroy heather, fall into my water wells etc.
The root cause was infected imported sheep from UK into NI and then on south (we are 4 km from the 'border'..)

My Q7

Who is responsible for putting those ODEs on the BBC News on March 17 2020? That was the spoof that was!

On the show, the professor received an almost deferential line of questioning from Sarah Smith with his views seemingly taken as near-Gospel as he declared that a 'significant level' of social distancing could have to be maintained indefinitely until a vaccine becomes available.

Blinded by science?

My C++ Boost code gives
262537412640768743.999999999999250072597198185688879353856337336990862707537410378210647910118607313

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Paul
Posts: 10922
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

### Re: Models for Covid-19

Magnus Pyke! In those days you could be an eccentric scientist and still be respected. Nowadays they are boring and not respected. My favourite from that era was James Burke.

I'd believe kat's modelling over Ferguson's any day of the week.

Cuchulainn
Topic Author
Posts: 63413
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

### Re: Models for Covid-19

Magnus Pyke! In those days you could be an eccentric scientist and still be respected. Nowadays they are boring and not respected. My favourite from that era was James Burke.

I'd believe kat's modelling over Ferguson's any day of the week.
I second both.
My C++ Boost code gives
262537412640768743.999999999999250072597198185688879353856337336990862707537410378210647910118607313

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl