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Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 4th, 2020, 4:11 pm

Lancet editor attacks UK government for ‘catastrophic’ handling of Covid-19 pandemic

https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproj ... 9-pandemic

I've ordered the book. Will be an "interesting" read..
I have just finished reading this book. It is a good read for a number of reasons, the main ones by Horton:

1. How the Western governments lied, again and again (herd immunity, PPE equipment, Spitfire/Duinkerke metaphor)
2. How the UK governments failed to take action. 
3.Collusion between scientists and government. Scientists suffer from cognitive bias and/or were muzzled by their politicians.
4. "The arrogance of exceptionallsm ", nuff said.

The most relevant page to my own weltanschauung is page 51 (March 16 - 23 March). Main events

1. Graham Medley (gov scientific advisor) on Newnight advocates a "nice big epidemic".
2. Sir Patrick Vallance suggests goal is to infect 60% of UK population (aka herd immunity).
(BTW I heard 1 and 2)
3. March 16 public advised to desist from non-essential travel.
4. March 18 schools out for summer
5. March 20, bars etc. shut
6. March 23 "stay at home"

The government basically panicked.

To quote "what is mysterious is that it didn't need the predictions of scientists at Imperial College London in March to estimate the impact of a 'watch-and-wait' approach. Any numerate school student could make the calculation."

So, that 20-year old code never worked (as discussed in my report) and probably never used. It was a smoke-screen.

The pieces fit together... case closed.
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 12th, 2020, 10:52 am

New government unit to take over Covid response

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-5332508 ... ting-story

Former government chief scientific adviser Prof Sir David King said the operations of the new body were a mystery.

A common anti-pattern
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quartz
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 13th, 2020, 7:53 am

Horton? This one?
The one of the Macchiarini scandal?
Of the salt controversy?
The one of the PACE scandal? (not retracted yet!!)
Of the HCQ paper?
Although in the case of Wakefield his conduct was impeccable, contrary to (emotional) depictions.
 
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 13th, 2020, 9:22 am

Horton? This one?
The one of the Macchiarini scandal?
Of the salt controversy?
The one of the PACE scandal? (not retracted yet!!)
Of the HCQ paper?
Although in the case of Wakefield his conduct was impeccable, contrary to (emotional) depictions.
So, what are you saying, really? I have difficulty second guessing.

I agree with most things that Horton writes about in this book, as I already mentioned. He has a good writing style.

All these other dredged tidbits are outside the scope of my project. Everything on social media I take with a shovel of SALT these days. 
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 13th, 2020, 10:05 am

BTW (anyways) I looked up the Guido Fawkes right-wing web site founded by Paul Staines

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guido_Fawkes_(website)

Stating that he is Anglo-Irish (the landed Church of Ireland class) is not accurate, This term has a very special meaning and is a bit quaint . Better to say "second generation Irish Catholic". He is an Irish citizen. He was also a member of the defunct Progressive Democrat party that contributed to Ireland's financial crisis, 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Irish_people

Conclusion: what's written on Guido Fawkes needs to be examined in great detail. Each to his own, I suppose.
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 16th, 2020, 7:31 pm

Image
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 16th, 2020, 8:37 pm

Today on BBC they actually showed the (udocumented) ODE model (an ODE system with 7 unknowns). Here is a snippet; Can it model Corona? sound too good to be true. And almost linear. My guess is that it cannot model a lot? It looks awful linear, almost. 1st year electrical engineering syllabus??

Image

Paul? Alan? Farid? Kats
Matt Hancock - The lockdown truly started on the 16th of March.
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 18th, 2020, 11:59 am

History in the making; I wonder who has read my report. Did the right honourable member inform the BBC as well?

Matt Hancock Accused Of 'Rewriting History' Over Lockdown Date


https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... 9duLP8bIqV


Health secretary tells Commons March 16 was "precisely when" lockdown started in a claim branded a "bare-faced lie".
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 18th, 2020, 1:57 pm

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Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 26th, 2020, 10:07 am

Nobel Laueate economist Paul Romer was interviewed on Aljazeera. 
Seems that from a report in the fall of 2019 that USA and UK were the top two countries in terms of preparedness for pandemic. What went wrong according to him?

1. Arrogance ("we have world's top scientists")
2. Brittle and inflexible model, systems and mindset
3. Inability to learn from other countries who were more successful.
4. "Fighting is vicious because the stakes are so small". Not any more.

These problems would be flagged and mitigated in well-run projects. These comments confirm my own.
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 27th, 2020, 2:08 pm

Post-COVID-19 Revisionism in action

The U.K.’s Response to Covid-19 Has Been World-Class

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... orld-class

The author needs to brush up his Wittgenstein. The article is a scream.

//
When I read the headline I thought it was satire but Americans (except Norman Mailer) don't do satire. I read on to the end of the article hoping to find the santy clause..
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bearish
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 27th, 2020, 2:41 pm

Post-COVID-19 Revisionism in action

The U.K.’s Response to Covid-19 Has Been World-Class

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... orld-class

The author needs to brush up his Wittgenstein. The article is a scream.

//
When I read the headline I thought it was satire but Americans (except Norman Mailer) don't do satire. I read on to the end of the article hoping to find the santy clause..


For those not inclined to pierce Bloomberg’s pay wall, in summary Professor Cowen largely credits Oxford University research with saving the world. So he is not exactly singing the praises of BJ and Cummings for their ept handling of the crisis, should that be a concern.
 
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 27th, 2020, 3:35 pm

In your opinion, of cuss!, And UK saving the world, get a grip! He glosses over the small matter of 45,000 deaths A kind of latter-day doublethink??

It would be interesting to know what the staff of the Jenner institute is (% EU nationals). In any case, its chief is Adrian Hill who was born in Dublin and educated at Trinity College there. I have a vague feeling that some of the best scientists there are Italian national.

"At first glance, the U.K.’s performance doesn’t look great." 
And at 2nd, 3rd, 4th glance. Fallacious reasoning; a savvy copy editor would catch this blunder. Do you think we're all stupid or something?

For the RECORD, there is no vaccine yet...
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Re: Models for Covid-19

August 6th, 2020, 2:41 pm

Covid-19 vaccine tracker, August 4: The WHO sees no silver bullet vaccine

https://indianexpress.com/article/expla ... 3-6538216/

The Oxford University vaccine, being developed in partnership with pharmaceutical major AstraZeneca, are already in phase-III human trials in some other countries. India’s regulatory rules require a drug or a vaccine to be tested on local population as well, before being allowed to be used in India.
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Re: Models for Covid-19

August 6th, 2020, 7:35 pm

Editors of The Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine: Pharmaceutical Companies are so Financially Powerful They Pressure us to Accept Papers

https://healthimpactnews.com/2020/edito ... pt-papers/

“If this continues, we are not going to be able to publish any more clinical research data because pharmaceutical companies are so financially powerful; they are able to pressure us to accept papers that are apparently methodologically perfect, but their conclusion is what pharmaceutical companies want.”

Begin with the end in mind?
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