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Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19

May 24th, 2021, 6:42 pm

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

“always maintain that propaganda has to be truthful. That doesn’t mean he didn’t lie, but it would be a pretty poor propagandist who publicly proclaimed that he was going to lie.”
"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
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Paul
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Re: Models for Covid-19

May 24th, 2021, 7:04 pm

“always maintain that propaganda has to be truthful. That doesn’t mean he didn’t lie, but it would be a pretty poor propagandist who publicly proclaimed that he was going to lie.”
I disagree with Drs Cuch and Goebbels on this.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19

May 29th, 2021, 12:45 pm

"fetchez le mathematicien"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... asing-risk

Gowers, a world-leading mathematician and winner of the Fields Medal – sometimes described as the Nobel prize of maths – was described by Cummings as “one of the smartest people on the planet” during evidence to two parliamentary committees.

read all about it here, esp. the two disclaimers in the first sentence.
BTW Gowers calls it the "r value", nuff said.
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"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19

May 29th, 2021, 12:46 pm

“always maintain that propaganda has to be truthful. That doesn’t mean he didn’t lie, but it would be a pretty poor propagandist who publicly proclaimed that he was going to lie.”
I disagree with Drs Cuch and Goebbels on this.
I'm pleased that it's in alphabetical order.
"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
David Wheeler

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http://www.datasim.nl
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19

May 29th, 2021, 1:07 pm

“always maintain that propaganda has to be truthful. That doesn’t mean he didn’t lie, but it would be a pretty poor propagandist who publicly proclaimed that he was going to lie.”
I disagree with Drs Cuch and Goebbels on this.
I'm pleased that it's in alphabetical order.
1 more thing; are you suggesting that the requirement of Propaganda being truthful be relaxed?
"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
David Wheeler

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Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19

June 16th, 2021, 12:08 pm

I told MPs how, literally as I was sketching the whiteboard above in the PM’s study on 13 March in preparation for the meeting I planned the next day with the PM, the deputy Cabinet Secretary walked in and told us that DHSC clearly had no serious plan and was imploding. When asked last week by MPs re my testimony, Hancock said that the disproof of what I’d said was ‘we had a plan, we published it on 3 March’ and this plan discussed lockdowns. He is referring to the laughable contain-delay-mitigate ‘plan’ published on 3 March. This document was based on the logic that we would not do suppression. Obviously this embarrassingly awful document, which will be remembered as a case study in failure for decades to come, in no sense set out what we actually did, as everybody can see.

timeline->

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... d-response
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ExSan
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 12th, 2021, 5:05 pm

 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 15th, 2021, 4:27 pm

Living with Modeling Uncertainty
In the rapidly evolving climate of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are major uncertainties around disease dynamics and policy outcomes, as well as ample opportunity for models to “get it wrong.” We should expect that the evidence base and epidemiological context will continue to shift, sometimes making earlier modeled results obsolete. Modeling is likely to remain prominent as new policy questions arise, yet the uncritical acceptance of modeling results will not serve public health or the field of modeling. Careful evaluation and comparison of results—and benchmarking against empirical findings where possible—will be important for revealing assumptions and potential biases, as well as spurring progressive improvement in modeling approaches.


Mom and apple pie.
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 18th, 2021, 2:02 pm

Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57877033

Prof Ferguson, who sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show it was "almost certain" that the UK would reach 100,000 cases and 1,000 hospital admissions per day as almost all legal restrictions on social contact end in England and school holidays begin.

Half a league, half a league,
  Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
  Rode the six hundred.
'Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns' he said:
Into the valley of Death
  Rode the six hundred.
"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 20th, 2021, 1:38 pm

Priceless.
Image
"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
David Wheeler

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Paul
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 21st, 2021, 7:38 am

It could have been worse. It could have been 50%.
 
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katastrofa
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 21st, 2021, 8:15 am

 
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Paul
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 21st, 2021, 8:18 am

Make it easier to get vaccinated in secret, so people don't need to lose face.
 
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bearish
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 21st, 2021, 5:55 pm

Make it easier to get vaccinated in secret, so people don't need to lose face.

I think that is a legit strategy.
 
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Alan
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Re: Models for Covid-19

July 21st, 2021, 6:18 pm

Priceless.
"Sir Patrick Vallance ..."
Well, congrats to the UK for their high vaccination coverage. Obviously, as that coverage approaches 100%, then close to 100% of new covid hospitalizations will be from vaccinated people. Duh!