In step with Paul’s test regarding PCR tests, the question has come up as to whether not vaccination increases or reduces the number of variants as well on LinkedIn. Hear me out…
1. One guy cites polio with a sample of 1 - a virus that was eliminated. However, corona viruses are resilient and have been around a long time. Corona virus and polio are very different.
2. If you look at a simple tree graph of the number of variants before and after the intervention (event) of the vaccine, the number of variants goes way up afterwards. However, I have a problem with this approach, despite my initiation that it is accurate (there is also at least one study that shows this in another virus). The issue is that in theory the number of variants is multiplicative or exponential in some manner. There is still the doubt that what I could be seeing is non-linearity.
I have a simple idea of how to test this using a Markov-model and a monte-Carlo simulation. However, what are the states and probabilities? When you move through different states, there is always a given probability that the virus will mutate. I could simply emulate it to come up with a similar tree once I have those probabilities, then I could compare reality to the baseline, and compute the variance by treating it as a mean.
Undergraduate: accounting, finance, information systems; Graduate: MBA/finance; Graduate certificates: data science, applied statistics, advanced valuation; PhD candidate - data science