Does it matter? The US and UK approaches have been dismal failures.

- Cuchulainn
**Posts:**18490**Joined:****Location:**Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch

Does it matter? The US and UK approaches have been dismal failures.

They sought it with thimbles, they sought it with care; They pursued it with forks and hope; They threatened its life with a railway-share; They charmed it with smiles and soap.

Does it matter? The US and UK approaches have been dismal failures.

Ummm - I think you are making the assumption that keeping the number of deaths low was a major objective.

- Cuchulainn
**Posts:**18490**Joined:****Location:**Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch

Are you trying to talk me into a corner?Does it matter? The US and UK approaches have been dismal failures.

Ummm - I think you are making the assumption that keeping the number of deaths low was a major objective.

Check out my recent comments on COVID-19 thread.

They sought it with thimbles, they sought it with care; They pursued it with forks and hope; They threatened its life with a railway-share; They charmed it with smiles and soap.

For the UK case I’m willing to apply the old adage that one shouldn’t attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence. In the US, there is plenty of malice at work at the highest level of government. As well as oodles of incompetence. They are not mutually exclusive, after all.

- Cuchulainn
**Posts:**18490**Joined:****Location:**Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch

Looking back, why almost empty hospitals in Manhattan and hospitals in Bronx bursting at the seams?Does it matter? The US and UK approaches have been dismal failures.

Ummm - I think you are making the assumption that keeping the number of deaths low was a major objective.

They sought it with thimbles, they sought it with care; They pursued it with forks and hope; They threatened its life with a railway-share; They charmed it with smiles and soap.

- Cuchulainn
**Posts:**18490**Joined:****Location:**Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch

I'm in top-left hand corner (0,0) and (1,0). I am however, considering (2,0).

I have an appointment with Junior-the-barber today. Have to look spik-n-span for my satellite speech for Thalesians 5 August.

I have an appointment with Junior-the-barber today. Have to look spik-n-span for my satellite speech for Thalesians 5 August.

- Cuchulainn
**Posts:**18490**Joined:****Location:**Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch

6 out of 10 people who have died from COVID-19 are disabled

https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comm ... e-disabled

https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comm ... e-disabled

6 out of 10 people who have died from COVID-19 are disabled

https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comm ... e-disabled

Something is deeply wrong with the grammar here. Surely, 10 out 10 people who have died from Covid-19 (or, for that matter, anything else) are disabled.

- Cuchulainn
**Posts:**18490**Joined:****Location:**Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch

let me get back to you on that one tomorrow. Our proof readers have a day off.

Can someone (and by someone I obviously mean kat!) do the maths of probability of having covid given one positive test and one negative, taken simultaneously. Assume different parameters for the two tests (i.e. false pos, neg, etc.) to model different types of tests. And if you have these parameters for the different types of tests that would be great too!

Thanks in advance!

Thanks in advance!

In step with Paul’s test regarding PCR tests, the question has come up as to whether not vaccination increases or reduces the number of variants as well on LinkedIn. Hear me out…

1. One guy cites polio with a sample of 1 - a virus that was eliminated. However, corona viruses are resilient and have been around a long time. Corona virus and polio are very different.

2. If you look at a simple tree graph of the number of variants before and after the intervention (event) of the vaccine, the number of variants goes way up afterwards. However, I have a problem with this approach, despite my initiation that it is accurate (there is also at least one study that shows this in another virus). The issue is that in theory the number of variants is multiplicative or exponential in some manner. There is still the doubt that what I could be seeing is non-linearity.

I have a simple idea of how to test this using a Markov-model and a monte-Carlo simulation. However, what are the states and probabilities? When you move through different states, there is always a given probability that the virus will mutate. I could simply emulate it to come up with a similar tree once I have those probabilities, then I could compare reality to the baseline, and compute the variance by treating it as a mean.

Thoughts?

1. One guy cites polio with a sample of 1 - a virus that was eliminated. However, corona viruses are resilient and have been around a long time. Corona virus and polio are very different.

2. If you look at a simple tree graph of the number of variants before and after the intervention (event) of the vaccine, the number of variants goes way up afterwards. However, I have a problem with this approach, despite my initiation that it is accurate (there is also at least one study that shows this in another virus). The issue is that in theory the number of variants is multiplicative or exponential in some manner. There is still the doubt that what I could be seeing is non-linearity.

I have a simple idea of how to test this using a Markov-model and a monte-Carlo simulation. However, what are the states and probabilities? When you move through different states, there is always a given probability that the virus will mutate. I could simply emulate it to come up with a similar tree once I have those probabilities, then I could compare reality to the baseline, and compute the variance by treating it as a mean.

Thoughts?

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Undergraduate: accounting, finance, information systems; Graduate: MBA/finance; Graduate certificates: data science, applied statistics, advanced valuation; PhD candidate - data science

Blog: Www.ThinkerTinkerSolutions.com

Undergraduate: accounting, finance, information systems; Graduate: MBA/finance; Graduate certificates: data science, applied statistics, advanced valuation; PhD candidate - data science

Blog: Www.ThinkerTinkerSolutions.com

Can someone (and by someone I obviously mean kat!) do the maths of probability of having covid given one positive test and one negative, taken simultaneously. Assume different parameters for the two tests (i.e. false pos, neg, etc.) to model different types of tests. And if you have these parameters for the different types of tests that would be great too!

Thanks in advance!

You need a confusion matrix. This study has one, but of course the probabilities of being infected and in the hospital are different from in the general population.

Study: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8080131/

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Undergraduate: accounting, finance, information systems; Graduate: MBA/finance; Graduate certificates: data science, applied statistics, advanced valuation; PhD candidate - data science

Blog: Www.ThinkerTinkerSolutions.com

Undergraduate: accounting, finance, information systems; Graduate: MBA/finance; Graduate certificates: data science, applied statistics, advanced valuation; PhD candidate - data science

Blog: Www.ThinkerTinkerSolutions.com

The chart from the second half of the presentation would be what I am describing at 2:35.In step with Paul’s test regarding PCR tests, the question has come up as to whether not vaccination increases or reduces the number of variants as well on LinkedIn. Hear me out…

1. One guy cites polio with a sample of 1 - a virus that was eliminated. However, corona viruses are resilient and have been around a long time. Corona virus and polio are very different.

2. If you look at a simple tree graph of the number of variants before and after the intervention (event) of the vaccine, the number of variants goes way up afterwards. However, I have a problem with this approach, despite my initiation that it is accurate (there is also at least one study that shows this in another virus). The issue is that in theory the number of variants is multiplicative or exponential in some manner. There is still the doubt that what I could be seeing is non-linearity.

I have a simple idea of how to test this using a Markov-model and a monte-Carlo simulation. However, what are the states and probabilities? When you move through different states, there is always a given probability that the virus will mutate. I could simply emulate it to come up with a similar tree once I have those probabilities, then I could compare reality to the baseline, and compute the variance by treating it as a mean.

Thoughts?

----

Undergraduate: accounting, finance, information systems; Graduate: MBA/finance; Graduate certificates: data science, applied statistics, advanced valuation; PhD candidate - data science

Blog: Www.ThinkerTinkerSolutions.com

Undergraduate: accounting, finance, information systems; Graduate: MBA/finance; Graduate certificates: data science, applied statistics, advanced valuation; PhD candidate - data science

Blog: Www.ThinkerTinkerSolutions.com

- Cuchulainn
**Posts:**18490**Joined:****Location:**Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch

A short history and it all started with a few cases in Lodi, Lombardia.

Need a bigger ODE? It seems like water seeping down a boot.

Need a bigger ODE? It seems like water seeping down a boot.