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Cuchulainn
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Second Generation COVID Models

December 22nd, 2020, 12:19 am

Look who's back! Professor Lockdown Neil Ferguson 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... stmas.html


However, minutes from the two-hour Nervtag meeting beforehand show the committee had concluded there was ‘currently insufficient data’ to answer crucial questions on the new strain. This included why it appeared to be more transmissible.


//
They can use my document as input

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epd ... wilm.10890


If you need a strict but fair and *unaffiliated* requirements analyst give us a ring. I recommend a combination of C++ and Python. Can't go wrong.
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Second Generation COVID Models

December 27th, 2020, 5:59 pm

"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
David Wheeler

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bearish
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Re: Second Generation COVID Models

December 27th, 2020, 10:51 pm


I’d be inclined to take Peter at least half way seriously. He is currently involved in a dispute with GitHub (aka Microsoft), who shut down all of his (50-odd) repositories, seemingly out of the blue.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Second Generation COVID Models

December 28th, 2020, 3:11 pm

This sounds serious. 
I wonder if Neil Ferguson's s/w is still on github?

somehow, Vasicek feels like a better model than (silly, IMHO) ODE models.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on December 28th, 2020, 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
David Wheeler

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http://www.datasim.nl
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Second Generation COVID Models

December 28th, 2020, 3:15 pm

looking back

Ferguson — who didn’t comment on the criticisms at the time — agrees that the simulation didn’t use current best-practice coding methods, because it had to be adapted from a model created more than a decade ago to simulate an influenza pandemic. There was no time to generate new simulations of the same complexity from scratch, he says, but the team has used more modern coding approaches in its other work. However, none of the criticisms of the code affects the mathematics or science of the simulation, he says.

Precious, Blame the code.
"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
David Wheeler

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl