SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

wanaquant
Posts: 83
Joined: May 12th, 2012, 1:19 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

Alan wrote:
Haha. For California, this would fly: the bitcoin energy-sufficient house. You mount the bitcoin mining rigs into a utility closet like for hvac. In the winter, the heat vents into the house, driving down the cost of the heating bills. In the summer, solar panels on the roof provide the electricity for the miners, and you vent their heat to the exterior. Factor in the profits from the mining operation, and the net energy expense of the house becomes zero! Patent pending

i can't find a link but i think some startup are already testing this in Germany.

Alan
Topic Author
Posts: 9030
Joined: December 19th, 2001, 4:01 am
Location: California
Contact:

### Re: End of bitcoin?

Yes, I have licensed the foreign development rights to a few select firms.

wanaquant
Posts: 83
Joined: May 12th, 2012, 1:19 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

I got back into a long a few days ago and closed half of it. It's a small long and it'll generate around 8,000usd in profit once we hit 1,000-1,050.

Looking at the chart, this is the correction from the dump that just happened. If the rally to 1,100 doesn't succeed then history will repeat itself and we'll stabilize again at support (780-850). I'd be then looking to get into a short.

wanaquant
Posts: 83
Joined: May 12th, 2012, 1:19 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

Closed my long a couple days before the dump. Unfortunately got a bit greedy (and maybe fearful) and placed my shorts higher (around 1100-1300). For now I'm just arbitraging some exchanges. The difference between futures (in March) and spot is around 100usd.

wanaquant
Posts: 83
Joined: May 12th, 2012, 1:19 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

Closed my arb at a small loss. It simply doesn't seem like it is going to work on the short term and worth the risk. I'm taking a large short here (around 250k usd value). A correction for the small bubble we had is due in my opinion.

wanaquant
Posts: 83
Joined: May 12th, 2012, 1:19 pm

Price moved from 1000 to 975 this morning. I think this is the breakout for the down move. I'm expecting small dumps and pumps all the way down to 790$. Targeting 830-800 for taking profit. wanaquant Posts: 83 Joined: May 12th, 2012, 1:19 pm ### Re: End of bitcoin? Market breaking out upside. Looking for pullback to cut losses. Alan Topic Author Posts: 9030 Joined: December 19th, 2001, 4:01 am Location: California Contact: ### Re: End of bitcoin? Always something amusing going on in bitcoin land: Is This Massive Power Struggle About To Blow Up Bitcoin? wanaquant Posts: 83 Joined: May 12th, 2012, 1:19 pm ### Re: End of bitcoin? Alan wrote: Always something amusing going on in bitcoin land: Is This Massive Power Struggle About To Blow Up Bitcoin? It's reckless to ignore the crypto-bubble going on. I think bitcoin being the center of the crypto-bubble is too easy to be true (buy bitcoin and then you are very rich). My guess is that manipulators, investors, and other actors will try to grab their cake by destroying/fracturing bitcoin and leaking the value to other coins that they are backing. The crypto market will grow at least x2 times this year and maybe much more than that. There is lots of money to be made speculating and market making. Alan Topic Author Posts: 9030 Joined: December 19th, 2001, 4:01 am Location: California Contact: ### Re: End of bitcoin? Yes, too bad the Winklevoss ETF was not approved. I'm not willing to short the thing in China, but an ETF would have been fun! wanaquant Posts: 83 Joined: May 12th, 2012, 1:19 pm ### Re: End of bitcoin? Alan wrote: Yes, too bad the Winklevoss ETF was not approved. I'm not willing to short the thing in China, but an ETF would have been fun! Are you looking to short bitcoin just because you don't agree with the idea, or you have some data backing it? Bitcoin is very volatile. wanaquant Posts: 83 Joined: May 12th, 2012, 1:19 pm ### Re: End of bitcoin? Otherwise, Coinbase now has margin trading and it is FDCI insured. There you go Alan! Alan Topic Author Posts: 9030 Joined: December 19th, 2001, 4:01 am Location: California Contact: ### Re: End of bitcoin? Thanks. I used to be registered at Coinbase with an unfunded account just to watch the trading, but then they kicked off all the unfunded accounts. Do they now allow short sales? (they didn't when I was on there). Re shorting, it would be mainly for entertainment with entry points decided by gut feel. Also, I can be as fickle as the next guy and might even go long sometime. But overall, I still think it is mainly a niche solution for very specialized problems -- money laundering, drugs, perhaps some capital flight, mostly Chinese. All that makes for a very fragile core of support. Of course, I believed the same thing when the price was$200 a coin, so that does give one pause. Also, the market cap is still only $17 billion. Well, there are certainly companies trading with larger market caps -- that have perhaps less of a rationale for existing! p.s. I see the rules to even access the margin account features are here. So, if you want to have an individual margin account without a hedging purpose, you need to have$10 million+ in investments. Or, you need to have a business purpose for the bitcoin trading. Hmmm ... I think I will keep waiting for the ETF.

wanaquant
Posts: 83
Joined: May 12th, 2012, 1:19 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

oh Alan I thought you are that rich! There is kraken which is US based and doesn't have such requirements. Why do you want to trade a market where you are emotionally biased and have no inner knowledge about? That seems to me like a rather "butt hurt" feeling (you missed on bitcoin going from 0 to 1000 and now want to prove a point).

I would not short bitcoin today (I exited my short at break even recently and I'm out of the market). The funding rate is around 0.1% per "day" and futures have a very low premium and are sometimes in backwardation. The time to short was around 1200-1300. Price now has retraced significantly to be worth the risk. See how emotions can bring you to a financial mess?

Alan
Topic Author
Posts: 9030
Joined: December 19th, 2001, 4:01 am
Location: California
Contact:

### Re: End of bitcoin?

Thanks for the kraken suggestion. What are your suggestions for increasing inner knowledge?