Code: Select all
I'm telling you for the 5th time now 17% is not rare, by any standard, you can wiggle all you want.
As to the spurious correlation, let me cite Elena Wentzel once again: "first of all, we should judge about correlation not according to the correlation coefficient but according to the common sense. So the mass and size of a bomb splitter are likely correlated, whereas the velocity of a bomber and its altimeter error are likely not"
But if you want this glorified confidence level, here you are!
Given, that Einstein flips a coin, the probability to achieve 553 of 883 is about 1:50000 (we did agree on this, didn't we?)
Further, if we flip a coin and selected the sequences with Einstein's or better level, the probabily of negative return (conditioned on this post-selection) is <= (883-553)/883 = 0.373
But Einstein has once 10 consequent(!) negative returns (you can browse his trade history on wikifolio's website, start from
16.10.2014 22:09).
And the probability to get a series of 10 losses is in this case 0.028
Since the number and order of "+" and "-" are independent, we can multiply these prpbabilites and thus obtain the critical confidence level.