So, I've been doing lots of trading in the last year or two. The number of executed trades is very high (I stopped counting long ago). From what I can tell based on my experience so far is that the flucuations during the trading day are pretty much random. Some times you might be lucky enough in the sense of "predicting" a particular future movement but overall I would define it as random (and yes, I know that's what most ABC books also state).
Nevertheless, there are some "characteristics" for the different indices, countires and particular stocks. As if they all have their individual "personality".
- Betting on a direction is hard, especially if you don't have unlimited funds. Doing some kind of a scheme where one allocates the stocks based on their mutual power relation seems to have a value trading wise and can be profitable (pair-trading strategies).
- Technical analysis is - overall - a no go. There might be something to gain wrt. support and resistance but aside from that the movements are simply too random. The shorter the holding period the larger scale of randomness.
Currently I'm in a check (mate) position where I cannot get to the next level. I have tons of applied and unsuccesful experience but nothing that really gives me the edge and advantage.
The reason I'm writing is to hear what you've done if you were ever in a similar position and maybe if I should focus on trading elements which I've completely overseen. So far I've primarily focused on day trading and short term trading (minutes, hours and sometimes up to a couple of days).
Is the best strategy simply just to buy an ETF or index tracker? I honestly find the statement less appealing as I believe that there are some good opportunities out there. Nevertheless my biggest weakness is that I tend to be in the market constantly or suffer from FOMO (not exacyly to be confused with "trigger happiness").