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katastrofa
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High trading profit opportunity from short-selling rubble - be like George Soros!

February 27th, 2022, 11:04 am

Thanks to the sanctions against Russia ruble will be losing value. Russian Central Bank will have to start selling their foreign exchange reserves to keep up the ruble value at the acceptable level. When they run out of the reserves, the ruble will crash. This process can be accelerated by traders shorting the ruble like George Soros did with pound in the 90s, making huge profits.
I’m wondering if the disconnection from SWIFT is an obstruction for traders?
 
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bearish
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Re: High trading profit opportunity from short-selling rubble - be like George Soros!

February 27th, 2022, 4:24 pm

I think the main problem with the trade is that Russian foreign exchange reserves are supposed to be at their highest level ever, well north of $600 bn. And while there are clearly logistics and sanction difficulties ahead, robust oil and gas prices are likely to provide a pretty strong revenue stream. As for execution, you are probably best off using non-deliverable forwards, which are essentially side bets on the RUB level, settled in the currency of your choice (but usually USD or EUR).
 
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katastrofa
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Re: High trading profit opportunity from short-selling rubble - be like George Soros!

February 27th, 2022, 6:36 pm

I think the main problem with the trade is that Russian foreign exchange reserves are supposed to be at their highest level ever, well north of $600 bn. And while there are clearly logistics and sanction difficulties ahead, robust oil and gas prices are likely to provide a pretty strong revenue stream. As for execution, you are probably best off using non-deliverable forwards, which are essentially side bets on the RUB level, settled in the currency of your choice (but usually USD or EUR).
Isn’t a large part of those reserves in foreign banks - frozen? Gold they won’t sell for dollars. Besides, Germany is disconnecting from the russian gas. I’m also wondering if Italy couldn’t switch to American liquid gas.
Anyway, things in russija are going crazy at the moment.
https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=0ArlUSVDQIw
 
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bearish
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Re: High trading profit opportunity from short-selling rubble - be like George Soros!

February 27th, 2022, 8:29 pm

This is definitely a dynamic situation. Your trade looks better by the hour, as the sanctions pile on, including on the Bank of Russia itself.
 
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bearish
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Re: High trading profit opportunity from short-selling rubble - be like George Soros!

February 27th, 2022, 8:40 pm

If I can parse my Bloomberg screen right, Citi is showing a current bid for USDRUB at 96 and change. That closed in an 83 context Friday night. Oh, and the ask is at 102, so approaching the spreads that will meet you at LHR. But in their defense, it’s Sunday and a war is going on.
 
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bearish
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Re: High trading profit opportunity from short-selling rubble - be like George Soros!

February 27th, 2022, 11:34 pm

It’s now 110/112. I’ll stop now.
 
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katastrofa
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Re: High trading profit opportunity from short-selling rubble - be like George Soros!

February 28th, 2022, 12:13 am

Thanks for your responses, bearish! I hope it will go to hell tomorrow :-)
 
leptoq
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Re: High trading profit opportunity from short-selling rubble - be like George Soros!

February 28th, 2022, 2:10 pm

19th-century writer Mikhail Saltykov-Shchedrin: "It is not a tragedy when in exchange for a ruble you get half a ruble; the tragedy is when in exchange for a ruble you get a punch in the face."
 
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katastrofa
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Re: High trading profit opportunity from short-selling rubble - be like George Soros!

February 28th, 2022, 7:11 pm

- What's exchange rate between, Dollar, Pound and Ruble?
- A pound of rubles is worth a dollar.
 
leptoq
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Re: High trading profit opportunity from short-selling rubble - be like George Soros!

February 28th, 2022, 9:44 pm

- What's exchange rate between, Dollar, Pound and Ruble?
- A pound of rubles is worth a dollar.
I love it! Hahaha.
 
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katastrofa
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Re: High trading profit opportunity from short-selling rubble - be like George Soros!

February 28th, 2022, 10:14 pm

I found another one:
“My favourite rap musician is 50 Cent, or as we call him in russia, 4 Million Ruble.”
 
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katastrofa
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Re: High trading profit opportunity from short-selling rubble - be like George Soros!

March 16th, 2022, 7:44 pm

Has the Schrödinger country collapsed yet?
Image
 
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katastrofa
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Re: High trading profit opportunity from short-selling rubble - be like George Soros!

March 17th, 2022, 8:47 pm

Why is it so quiet in the forum? :lol:
I'm wondering how long they can animate the dead ruble by limiting foreign exchange.
If it was about rationing food (another russian trick for such occasions, which they are surely going to play soon), they could reduce the rations (or limit to a part of the population) until half of the population would die of hunger and the survivors could finally eat full. Vide Holodomor they introduced in Ukraine. How does it work with money, though? "Shrinking economy"? Has there been similar stories in the past?
Lots of questions, will be grateful for some insight offered to a finance/economy noob.
 
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katastrofa
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Re: High trading profit opportunity from short-selling rubble - be like George Soros!

March 21st, 2022, 9:17 pm

I LOL'd :-)