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farmer
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Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 6th, 2010, 3:26 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Martinghoulafter watching the ECB press-conf, I am so short EUR (and pessimistic regarding the prospects of the EMU), I can't see straight.I'm long but I can see pretty straight!Trichet said he would let the bonds go rather than trash the currency. What's not to like?
Last edited by farmer on May 5th, 2010, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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farmer
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Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 6th, 2010, 3:34 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: MartinghoulFor the record, after watching the ECB press-conf, I am so short EUR (and pessimistic regarding the prospects of the EMU), I can't see straight.Until you are flat, you didn't really tell anybody anything. I been taking shots all along for you to get squeezed. It could take days, and then weeks, and then months.I hope to quadruple my money every three points up. If I get 12 points, what is that? 64 times my money? I am more worried about the plain unlikelihood of that than about anything Trichet said.
 
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Martinghoul
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Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 6th, 2010, 4:57 pm

Best of luck to us both, Comrade Farmer!
 
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farmer
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Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 6th, 2010, 5:17 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: MartinghoulBest of luck to us both, Comrade Farmer!I'm doing worse today. When I saw it didn't look very volatile after it busted through the lows, I tried a larger position. Hey, there is no risk here! Bigger position, same result: Stopped out. I have gotten pretty lucky though: Buying lows, selling out lower. If I had just gone long and held, or bought runups and sold flat on selloffs, I would not have lasted.I have lost definitely less than 1/5th or 1/6th the money of just going long and holding. I have lost maybe 1/5th the money of buying runups. Just as wild guesses. I can imagine how much it would suck to just be stuck long this thing. People must be miserable.Anyway, from a historical perspective, it has not been very volatile. I really think there just are not a lot of euros. Why can't Greece pay back? No euros. Why can't Europe buy Chinese exports? No euros. That Trichet is breaking their teeth on that euro.
 
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farmer
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Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 6th, 2010, 5:31 pm

My only regret is that is hasn't crashed. That would make getting stopped out and picking bottoms much more satisfying.It is so rare that getting stopped out once ends up being a good exit. To have it multiple times in a row is sublime. It's like saving a puppy's life with a claw hammer.
 
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Martinghoul
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Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 6th, 2010, 5:36 pm

Dude, I don't know anything any more... I feel another Lehman coming on and it's making me very sad and tired.
 
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farmer
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Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 6th, 2010, 6:55 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: MartinghoulDude, I don't know anything any more... I feel another Lehman coming on and it's making me very sad and tired.I guess you are short but not really hedged? Any way what do you want, at least mankind is not in a world war. Spending a bunch of money they can't pay back is pretty typical human behavior. And it is pretty interesting to trade, especially for someone like me who doesn't really tune in to, like, European news. I hope they all starve, as long as they don't print euros! And if they do print euros, then the Germans can starve with them.Anyway what is the news flow like between now and Sunday night? How many days volatility should I fear and hope for between the close and the open if I am long? Any possible news events?If anybody has any news events in mind that mind move it, I would be curious to know!But anyway come on, this euro is no lower than it was a year ago. And these moves are not that big. And these bailouts are nothing, what a few hundred billion? Maybe people will learn from this and be more sensible, and we will enter a Golden Age.
 
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Martinghoul
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Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 7th, 2010, 8:27 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerQuoteOriginally posted by: MartinghoulDude, I don't know anything any more... I feel another Lehman coming on and it's making me very sad and tired.I guess you are short but not really hedged?I wish I were... Unfortunately, something compelled me to place some trust in the European powers that be and I bot some peripheral paper. Nothing as juicy as Greece, but it's hurting bad nonetheless.
 
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farmer
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Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 7th, 2010, 8:42 am

Hah, now I see it. People who are in losing bond positions look for a government bailout. So instead of just living with their bad position in bonds, they spread short euros against long bonds, and hope the government will come bail them out and destroy the euro. So they short the euro, and then put all kinds of political pressure for Trichet to destroy the euro, because they were so stupid as to buy, and then hold, bonds that they don't like.QuoteOriginally posted by: Martinghoulsomething compelled me to place some trust in the European powers that be and I bot some peripheral paper.You deserve to go entirely fucking broke and sleep on the sidewalk. Sovereign credits are supposed to be sovereign, not "We take huge gambles, when we win we are brilliant, when we lose the government comes and makes us whole."That is disgusting. Hold onto your bonds. If the government who sold them pays the coupons, you are okay. If not, you are an idiot. If you get margined out before they pay the coupon and before prices recover, well... I guess it makes perfect sense you putting trust in the government and not yourself!This is worse than going long Morgan Stanley and shorting Goldman Sachs. It is like shorting Morgan Stanley, going long Goldman, and then demanding the government prosecute Morgan Stanley for Goldman's crime, and let Goldman Sachs off the hook! I know that is what trading has become, lobbying. Or maybe always was! But it is really pathetic! You should all be put out of business.
 
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Martinghoul
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Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 7th, 2010, 8:56 am

farmer, pls calm down... I hate to see you all excited like this.I am not looking for a govt bailout. I take full responsibility for my decisions and if I lose money, it's nobody's fault but mine. Moreover, if you think I am capable of exerting any political pressure on anyone, you're insane.As to me being short the EUR, I am short, because it's been made abundantly clear to me in the past few days that the EMU is not a viable construct. That's all there is to it. It's a noble idea, but, unfortunately, it seems like it's well ahead of its time.
 
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farmer
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Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 7th, 2010, 9:02 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: Martinghoulfarmer, pls calm down... I hate to see you all excited like this.See, people skills. You are lobbying me!
 
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farmer
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Posts: 13477
Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 7th, 2010, 3:04 pm

Well anyway I am long again, and this is BY FAR the biggest and longest-duration profit I have seen in this little croissant-eating event. At this rate I will be back where I was two days in two hours, and up on the game by the close.So let's see, that's how many chickens?
 
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Martinghoul
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Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 7th, 2010, 3:11 pm

You da man, Comrade Farmer! I salute you!
 
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Orbit
Posts: 492
Joined: October 14th, 2003, 5:34 pm

Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 7th, 2010, 11:51 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerI made sure to load up on euros first before my brilliant question moves markets! But anyway everybody is saying this Greece issue is weighing on the euro, and the timing of this recent slide coincides with some formal bailout agreement or something.Economically, this makes no sense to me. Have they said anywhere that Trichet will devalue the euro, or will be forced to? I don't see that happening. Those Europeans are not some third-world dump. Germany runs that place, and they are nothing like Mexico or Russia. If anything, economic growth and the supply of euros will contract as this passes through the system, and US economic growth will mean more dollars relative to euros, and a higher price for the euro.I will position trade the euro the whole way to 1.42!So enlighten me.Farmer what smokest thou?The Germans don't run anything. They are flies trapped on the same fly-paper.We are witnessing the end of fiat money. The question is/was which would blow up first? The USD or the Euro? And to me it is looking like the Euro.
 
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sunra
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Joined: October 31st, 2009, 4:11 am

Why is this Greece situation bad for the Euro?

May 8th, 2010, 12:42 am

see u at eur 0.80 bro
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