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Traden4Alpha
Posts: 22966
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

Re: End of bitcoin?

December 7th, 2017, 12:41 pm

ppauper wrote:
Traden4Alpha wrote:
What's misleading about ppauper's chart is the absolutely massive increase in productivity that has bolstered wages and cut the prices of consumer goods denominated in wages.  Go back and look at the price of a car in 1913, the median wage in 1913, the features of that 1913 car and then compare that to a 2017 automobile bought with the 2017 median wages.  A 1913 dollar was surely worth far less than a 2017 dollar because no amount of 1913 dollars could buy the knds of goods that 2017 consumers buy today.


Unless you're claiming that any productivity increases since 1913 were caused by the Fed, I'm not sure what your point is. Inflation destroys savings.

Inflation only "destroys" cash, not savings that are invested in the economy.  A stable rate of inflation is not a problem.  What is worse than inflation is volatility in an currency (rapdi changes in inflation/deflation) which can bankrupt either lenders or borrowers depending on the direction of the movement.  Gold (and BTC) are horrible as a store of value because their price flucuates so much.  BTC is especially bad even as a medium of exchange because the currency can fluculate several percent just within the time frame of a single USD->BTC->USD roundtrip.
 
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outrun
Posts: 3913
Joined: April 29th, 2016, 1:40 pm

Re: End of bitcoin?

December 7th, 2017, 2:09 pm

It's not that bad. It fluctuates up with 100% / month, I bet that USD->BTC->USD is free wealth if you don't do it too fast.
 
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Traden4Alpha
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Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

Re: End of bitcoin?

December 7th, 2017, 11:51 pm

Would you be willing to take on mortgage or debt for capital investment denominated in BTC?
 
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Alan
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Re: End of bitcoin?

December 8th, 2017, 1:52 am

- Dude, what's your major?
- Cryptocurrency
- Cool!
- Yeah, my Dad sold a few coins and endowed the whole department! 

(Scene from the 2020 remake of 'Back to School').

Oingo Boingo reunites; Rodney appears as hologram:

Last edited by Alan on December 8th, 2017, 2:06 am
 
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bearish
Posts: 2550
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: End of bitcoin?

December 8th, 2017, 2:04 am

Given the way clearing houses socialize losses I sincerely hope bitcoin futures margins are not going to be commingled with margin for everything else. 100% margin may not be remotely enough for a short position, given recent price moves. It will probably suffice for long positions, although that really should be 108.34%.
 
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outrun
Posts: 3913
Joined: April 29th, 2016, 1:40 pm

Re: End of bitcoin?

December 8th, 2017, 12:43 pm

 "CoinDesk writer Omak Godbole notes that the price should remain stable, dips below the 10-day MA are not very likely"
 
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Paul
Posts: 7857
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: End of bitcoin?

December 8th, 2017, 5:22 pm

We just planted some tulips. So if bitcoin crashes we'll be ok.
 
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outrun
Posts: 3913
Joined: April 29th, 2016, 1:40 pm

Re: End of bitcoin?

December 8th, 2017, 5:24 pm

If only that worked again!

This is interesting, 40% of bitcoin is owned by just 1.000 users, and people monitor their wallets.

https://news.slashdot.org/story/17/12/0 ... ank-values
 
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outrun
Posts: 3913
Joined: April 29th, 2016, 1:40 pm

Re: End of bitcoin?

December 8th, 2017, 5:24 pm

lol, "each may want to sell about half of his or her holdings, says Aaron Brown"
 
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Paul
Posts: 7857
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: End of bitcoin?

December 8th, 2017, 9:12 pm

outrun wrote:
If only that worked again!

This is interesting, 40% of bitcoin is owned by just 1.000 users, and people monitor their wallets.

https://news.slashdot.org/story/17/12/0 ... ank-values

https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-riche ... esses.html
 
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Alan
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Location: California
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Re: End of bitcoin?

December 8th, 2017, 11:33 pm

Paul wrote:
outrun wrote:
If only that worked again!

This is interesting, 40% of bitcoin is owned by just 1.000 users, and people monitor their wallets.

https://news.slashdot.org/story/17/12/0 ... ank-values

https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-riche ... esses.html

Very interesting table. 

Related, here is the original analysis by S.D. Lerner, where he deduced that Satoshi Nakamoto has a (so-far unspent) stash of approx 1 million bitcoins.
 
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Paul
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Re: End of bitcoin?

December 9th, 2017, 9:53 am

I’m curious to know how many bitcoins are owned by the people who say it’s a bubble: Jamie Dimon; Warren Buffett; Ken Griffin;...
 
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ISayMoo
Posts: 351
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: End of bitcoin?

December 9th, 2017, 3:04 pm

I own zero, and say it's a bubble.
 
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Traden4Alpha
Posts: 22966
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

Re: End of bitcoin?

December 9th, 2017, 3:38 pm

I'd think that many of them do own some bitcoin because: 1) just in case they are wrong and this new asset class does offer high returns; 2) they may rightly perceive they can time the bubble; 3) they simply enjoy the froth and frenzy of markets ; 4) it's a learning experience for them.

But I seriously doubt Buffet would buy bitcoin because he is such a strong believer in investment based on fundamentals.
 
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quantie
Posts: 907
Joined: October 18th, 2001, 8:47 am

Re: End of bitcoin?

December 10th, 2017, 3:52 am

quantie wrote:
The LPPL Sornette stuff shows we are a couple of weeks away from a critical time in bitcoin..but the confidence interval of this estimate is wide
This is definitely getting close


I ran the model again shows further evidence of a crash shortly. Critical time is less than 10days at multiple time horizons...
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