SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

Alan
Topic Author
Posts: 10016
Joined: December 19th, 2001, 4:01 am
Location: California
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### Re: End of bitcoin?

When I started this thread in 2014, BTC was around $500 and Mt. Gox was just about to fail. What followed was a run-up to near$20,000 late last year and subsequent sell-off to around $3,000 today. Since bitcoin has no intrinsic value or reference points, a log price scale seems appropriate. Using the log price intervals on the right of the chart below, make your guesses for what interval we will be in a year, say Dec 14, 2019. I think a plausible total range is covered, but you never know. Source: bitcoincharts.com I will guess: back to where this particular chart starts,$500-1000.

bearish
Posts: 5425
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

We've seen something like an 85% drop from the peak. I'm thinking we need two more of those to get to a reasonable value, but I think that can easily take a couple of years. So I'll go with 85% down from $3,000, which is just below your range at$450.

alpher
Posts: 90
Joined: September 1st, 2012, 4:20 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

what a scam I hope it edns to be honest.

alpher
Posts: 90
Joined: September 1st, 2012, 4:20 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

what a scam I hope it edns to be honest.

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

what a scam I hope it edns to be honest.
edns?

alpher
Posts: 90
Joined: September 1st, 2012, 4:20 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

^ i am sure you have iq of 200+ to figure out the misspelling...

bearish
Posts: 5425
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

For somebody who appears to be actively looking to land a coding job on this forum, I would tend to agree that an accidental double post with missing punctuation and a misspelling does not necessarily send the right signal. Attention to detail, and all that. On the substance of bitcoin, I think we agree.

alpher
Posts: 90
Joined: September 1st, 2012, 4:20 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

i argee tuu, biirish.

alpher
Posts: 90
Joined: September 1st, 2012, 4:20 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

PS
I may end up banned for trolling now but had to make the above post anyway .

bearish
Posts: 5425
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

I wouldn't worry about that. Far worse things are happening around here on a regular basis. So, as long as the job thing is not important, you're fine.

alpher
Posts: 90
Joined: September 1st, 2012, 4:20 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

^ Like what? I guess predicting BTC at \$20k by the end of 2018 is what you consider "far worse".

alpher
Posts: 90
Joined: September 1st, 2012, 4:20 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

On a more serious note, I've done some tests on BTC data and it seems to be random...very random. I am sure this doesn't come as a surprise to people on this forum though but try explaining it to people on reddit, the btc subreddit...

ISayMoo
Posts: 2290
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: End of bitcoin?

bipartisan, one dem, one GOP

It's a valid issue, how should cryptocurrencies be regulated, if at all?
As securities?
And, perhaps most notably, under the bill’s definition, a digital token “is not a representation of a financial interest in a company, including an ownership or debt interest or revenue share.”
As commodiites?
As currencies?
As collectibles?

bearish
Posts: 5425
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm