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kc11415
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I sense a disturbance in transport

November 14th, 2021, 1:05 am

Shipping & Trucking & Rail seem headed for a generational paradigm shift at least in the USA if not also elsewhere:
https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/too-big-to-sail-how-a-legal-revolution
Too Big to Sail: How a Legal Revolution Clogged Our Ports
We are now in a giant parking lot game that threatens the global economy. Thank deregulation and the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 1998.
https://medium.com/@ryan79z28/im-a-twenty-year-truck-driver-i-will-tell-you-why-america-s-shipping-crisis-will-not-end-bbe0ebac6a91
I’m A Twenty Year Truck Driver, I Will Tell You Why America’s “Shipping Crisis” Will Not End
"I have a simple question for every ‘expert’ who thinks they understand the root causes of the shipping crisis:
Why is there only one crane for every 50–100 trucks at every port in America?"
 
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Re: I sense a disturbance in transport

November 25th, 2021, 8:44 pm

ads to inflation expectations...?
 
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kc11415
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Re: I sense a disturbance in transport

December 7th, 2021, 2:17 am

yes, but more specifically, anyone thinking that monetary/fiscal policy interventions are gonna somehow circumvent the fundamental market structure disfunctions...  well the expression used by the folks in Appalachia (land of banjo music, and folks who like to smoke cigarettes at petrol filling stations) is "Bless your heart"
 
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bearish
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Re: I sense a disturbance in transport

December 7th, 2021, 3:24 am

I respect the opinion of truckers from Appalachia as much as the next guy, but I suspect the invisible hand will find a way here, whether or not aided by fiscal and monetary policy. Although it may take a little while. Of course, the lack of truck drivers (just one of the current bottlenecks) is presumably related to the forecast that all trucks will shortly be self driving. And, seemingly easier, port cranes will be self managed.
 
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Alan
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Re: I sense a disturbance in transport

December 7th, 2021, 7:34 pm

Port automation is a highly contentious issue in Los Angeles and San Pedro. The first self-driving truck may arrive at either port, but I doubt it will make it out alive. 
 
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kc11415
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Re: I sense a disturbance in transport

December 8th, 2021, 1:58 am

Re: self-driving trucks...  I've been hearing predictions of how technology was gonna change this, that, or the other thing, since roughly around the tail end of the Apollo program.  I've been working in computers since the days of 8-bit CP/M (of which 16-bit MS-DOS was a pirated clone).  I've been building/administering internet nodes since 1990, when folks were still (incorrectly) referring to it as ARPAnet.  I've been working with web servers since roughly 1992-1993.  Did my first $100M revenues eCommerce system in the mid-late 1990's. My first computer engineering professor was a former member of the Manhattan Project, who built...[...redacted...]. I've been hearing so damn many predictions about how this or that technology was gonna change the rules.  With all due respect, I call bullshit.  Airplanes can fly themselves, as long as conditions fall within those projected by the engineers.  The hundreds of bodies racked up in just two 737MAX crashes show the folly of engineering managers who think their analysis superlative to the skills of truck drivers or airplane pilots.  Engineers tried to stop the 737MAX fiasco, and the Space Shuttle Challenger fiasco, but in both cases were overruled by engineering managers.
 
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Paul
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Re: I sense a disturbance in transport

December 8th, 2021, 6:17 pm

Re: self-driving trucks...  I've been hearing predictions of how technology was gonna change this, that, or the other thing, since roughly around the tail end of the Apollo program.  I've been working in computers since the days of 8-bit CP/M (of which 16-bit MS-DOS was a pirated clone).  I've been building/administering internet nodes since 1990, when folks were still (incorrectly) referring to it as ARPAnet.  I've been working with web servers since roughly 1992-1993.  Did my first $100M revenues eCommerce system in the mid-late 1990's. My first computer engineering professor was a former member of the Manhattan Project, who built...[...redacted...]. I've been hearing so damn many predictions about how this or that technology was gonna change the rules.  With all due respect, I call bullshit.  Airplanes can fly themselves, as long as conditions fall within those projected by the engineers.  The hundreds of bodies racked up in just two 737MAX crashes show the folly of engineering managers who think their analysis superlative to the skills of truck drivers or airplane pilots.  Engineers tried to stop the 737MAX fiasco, and the Space Shuttle Challenger fiasco, but in both cases were overruled by engineering managers.
I think this is why we use the phrase, "X is the best thing since sliced bread." Nothing has improved man's lot without any downside since sliced bread. Except, of course, for Tamara Taylor.
 
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kc11415
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Re: I sense a disturbance in transport

December 9th, 2021, 12:54 am

(Note to self: don't post when tired or after a hectic day with lots of interruptions.  Otherwise, my manners might not be optimal.)  To any I offended with overly aggressive or disrespectful language; mea culpa. please accept my apologies.  I do actually respect the members of this community.  I do not wish to come across as "the ugly American."
 
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kc11415
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Re: I sense a disturbance in transport

December 9th, 2021, 1:03 am

NPR's "Fresh Air" podcast had a recent interview which touches upon managers overruling engineers on safety-related decisions:
"Investigative reporter Peter Robison chronicles the tragic story of the Boeing 737 MAX aircraft in his new book, 'Flying Blind.' He says Boeing failed to warn pilots that new software in the plane could cause its nose to repeatedly pitch down, a malfunction that led to two deadly crashes in the space of five months. Robison says the 737 MAX disaster is at its heart the story of a corporate culture that prized profits and shareholder value over quality and safety — and of federal regulators more committed to serving the airline industry than protecting the public. "
https://www.npr.org/2021/11/29/1059796996/the-story-of-the-boeing-737-max
 
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bearish
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Re: I sense a disturbance in transport

December 9th, 2021, 1:37 am

For whatever it is worth (probably not all that much), I think you’re entirely within the bounds of what is considered appropriate around here, and no need to apologize.
 
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katastrofa
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Re: I sense a disturbance in transport

December 15th, 2021, 3:02 pm

Port automation is a highly contentious issue in Los Angeles and San Pedro. The first self-driving truck may arrive at either port, but I doubt it will make it out alive. 
Makes me wonder why would a truck pose greater challenge than a space rocket? I guess we'd need to ask Elon Musk.