Headline from Bloomberg this morning, the treasury 3m/10year spread turned negative led the market emotion swing into negative from positive during a single trading day. People got spooked and dumping their shares. I am wondering if the market is producing false positive for recession based on the old market wisdom with all the QE and Quants model based trading reinforcing the signals into reality. How can we see the truth of the economy? Or it is becoming a self fulfilling story so we should just ride with the crowd?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... xed-income
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... d-on-rates