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Paul
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Hyperinflation

March 10th, 2020, 2:53 pm

Caused by wars, socialism, viruses...

Discuss!
 
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Re: Hyperinflation

March 10th, 2020, 3:16 pm

 
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Randor
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Re: Hyperinflation

March 20th, 2020, 11:41 am

hyperinflation occurs when there is a massive and ongoing shortage of supply of REAL resources.
it is a red-herring when people talk about money supply- affects on money supply are a consequence, not a cause.

in modern diversified economies this is a very unlikely occurrence.
it is possible using fiscal policy to increase demand and get to full employment and increase inflation to reasonable levels (of a fully-employed economy) , but not to hyperinflation.

deflation however is a much bigger risk that no one talks about.  
 
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Paul
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Re: Hyperinflation

March 20th, 2020, 5:01 pm

These are strange times. I have no idea what will happen. But when you can’t even buy jigsaw puzzles that’s pretty much the definition of shortage! Old people are on the edge of being wiped out, in many cases all they have are some savings. They won’t be worried about deflation.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Hyperinflation

March 20th, 2020, 9:23 pm

hyperinflation occurs when there is a massive and ongoing shortage of supply of REAL resources.

You mean, like double-layered toilet rolls?
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Randor
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Re: Hyperinflation

March 20th, 2020, 9:35 pm

guys, you are mathematicians, think about it:
read #MMT
unless our countries force factories to close down, we will not have any major shortages.

definitely i see high chance of demand going way DOWN, not up,  with people stuck at home, fired from work...

btw, USD 1y inflation swap trades at minus 1% now
 
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Paul
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Re: Hyperinflation

March 20th, 2020, 9:58 pm

That's not the point. No one is predicting anything. But if demand goes down that's not necessarily bad. (Caveat: Unless it's because the human race is extinct!)
 
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Randor
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Re: Hyperinflation

March 21st, 2020, 4:29 pm

The great depression happened when demand dropped down
 
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Randor
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Re: Hyperinflation

March 21st, 2020, 4:37 pm

PS read #mmt
Really!
Try out some SFC (stock flow consistent) modelling.
It is the only way to honestly model economics without bringing in nonsense assumptions and maintaining a correct understanding of how fiat money is created and used in the modern world since 1973). ( Except for the European commentator above- as many Europeans gave up their monetary sovereignty!)

It's a pity all the mathematical geniuses wasting away on fancy derivatives when they could be useful and work on MMT economics !
Read #MMT.
Start with Warren moslers 7DIF. Warren started out as a hedge fund guy and made his mint there. He ended up designing racing cars, and boats, and figured out a few critical things in economics too.
 
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Paul
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Re: Hyperinflation

March 21st, 2020, 4:52 pm

Start a thread on the dangers of deflation then!

And learn to read what is actually written!
 
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Randor
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Re: Hyperinflation

March 21st, 2020, 5:20 pm

Sorry if I have offended
 
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Re: Hyperinflation

March 23rd, 2020, 1:07 pm

Looking at past research on hyperinflation and besides classic economics books, there is a selection of papers on SSRN

SSRN Search Results for Hyperinflation

Yields a total of 201 papers (possibly with a few duplicates) - some papers are from academics, some from practitioners, and some of the authors are both.

I will be looking through them this week.
 
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Randor
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Re: Hyperinflation

March 23rd, 2020, 3:16 pm

 
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Paul
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Re: Hyperinflation

March 23rd, 2020, 5:10 pm

I introduced the hyperinflation topic as part of the sequence: Brexit + Boris -> Attack on old from young and Remoaners -> Same groups hoping that old people die off -> Corona -> old people dying off, pensions falling. The only thing old people had left was perhaps some savings. So the final nail in the coffin...inflation. 
 
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Paul
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Re: Hyperinflation

March 26th, 2020, 7:24 am

Orange juice up. Mail-order shirts down.
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