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acuriousone
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Joined: October 4th, 2013, 10:09 am

UK economy looks promising

October 5th, 2013, 2:25 pm

The Markit/CIPS PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for the services sector posted at 60.5 in August, compared to 60.2 in July.David Noble, CIPS CEO said:Quote Optimism abounds as the UK services sector, combined with manufacturing and construction, completes a glowing picture for the UK economy. Service providers reported the fastest growth since December 2006 and the sharpest rise of new business for over 16 years. As a result, confidence remains high, providing a platform for investment and expansion for the rest of the year. In contrast, employment was a little stilted, but burgeoning order books and the sharpest rise in backlogs since February 2000 means this should be of little immediate concern for an indicator which tends to lag, and we expect staff numbers to improve by the end of the year. Input costs have continued to climb in August, and firms sought to offset these with their own price increases reflecting positive business expectations and market optimism. Based on this set of data, we are anticipating the current sequence of UK service sector expansion to be extended over the coming months.Business activity across the private sector economy, dropped slightly in September to 60.4, but only marginally compared to the 60.6 August record high. Reference: "UK Economy Growing Fastest Among Developed Nations"
Last edited by acuriousone on October 4th, 2013, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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acuriousone
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UK economy looks promising

October 5th, 2013, 2:26 pm

Essentially the UK is the fastest growing economy among developed nations at the moment.
 
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DominicConnor
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UK economy looks promising

October 15th, 2013, 5:18 pm

What is interesting is that no one is really sure quite why the UK is doing so well at the moment.My own suggestion is labour flexibility.Real wages in the UK dropped quite hard during the recession and unemployment did not increase as much as most people expected.That implies that by choir or coercion UK workers accepted less money in order to avoid risk of losing their job.Of course a pay cut doesn't guarantee you keeping your job and this fear combined with lower disposable income to reduce consumer spending harder than was expected, which fits with the softer demand for consumer credit.That means a perceived upturn in the economy gets multiple boosts, people in jobs feel more secure and get more pay to spend and fewer firms were crashed trying to pay the wage bill.Although UK workers are culturally not as flexible as Americans, they are vastly more flexible than Europeans in terms of jobs they will take.Also on top of all that the demographics in the UK are rather better than much of Europe because it imports young, usually skilled workers from poorer countries in considerable number.
 
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farmer
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Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

UK economy looks promising

October 16th, 2013, 12:19 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: DominicConnorReal wages in the UK dropped quite hard during the recessionQuoteThe recession of 1920-21 was characterized by extreme deflation - the largest one-year percentage decline in around 140 years of data. The Department of Commerce estimates 18% deflation, Balke and Gordon estimate 13% deflation, and Romer estimates 14.8% deflation. The drop in wholesale prices was even more severe, falling by 36.8%, the most severe drop since the American Revolutionary War. This is worse than any year during the Great DepressionQuoteThe 11.7 percent unemployment rate in 1921 fell to 6.7 percent in 1922, and then to 2.4 percent in 1923.Paul Krugman has some weird explanation that the 1921 recession was not actually a recession, but merely a change in price levels from Fed policy.QuoteHoover's policy views set the stage for meetings he held at the White House with major industry in late 1929 that included General Motors , Ford , U.S. Steel and DuPont , and advised them not to cut wages. Hoover told industry that maintaining wage levels would minimize the severity of a downturn and help him keep peace with labor. Hoover then asked labor leaders not to strike and to withdraw requests for higher wages. Following these meetings, industry publicly acknowledged their compliance with Hoover's wage program as they held wage rates fixed.
Last edited by farmer on October 15th, 2013, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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dd3
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UK economy looks promising

October 16th, 2013, 6:07 pm

I can't help but fear a housing bubble in England. I read the same stories here now as I did when it was all kicking off in Ireland.
Last edited by dd3 on October 15th, 2013, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Ultraviolet
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Joined: August 15th, 2012, 9:46 am

UK economy looks promising

October 17th, 2013, 2:42 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: DominicConnorWhat is interesting is that no one is really sure quite why the UK is doing so well at the moment. [...]Isn't it the weakening of pound finally bringing the intended results?
 
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Cuchulainn
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UK economy looks promising

October 18th, 2013, 1:08 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: dd3I can't help but fear a housing bubble in England. I read the same stories here now as I did when it was all kicking off in Ireland.Irrational exhuberance?
 
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dd3
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UK economy looks promising

October 18th, 2013, 7:20 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: dd3I can't help but fear a housing bubble in England. I read the same stories here now as I did when it was all kicking off in Ireland.Irrational exhuberance?"House prices are going up! Better get on The Ladder!"
 
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Cuchulainn
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UK economy looks promising

October 19th, 2013, 6:29 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: dd3QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: dd3I can't help but fear a housing bubble in England. I read the same stories here now as I did when it was all kicking off in Ireland.Irrational exhuberance?"House prices are going up! Better get on The Ladder!"There are some nice (drawings of) apartments in Bulgaria on the Black Sea. Saw a nice stone cottage in Connemara for only 1M last week.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on October 18th, 2013, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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daveangel
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UK economy looks promising

October 20th, 2013, 4:05 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: dd3QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: dd3I can't help but fear a housing bubble in England. I read the same stories here now as I did when it was all kicking off in Ireland.Irrational exhuberance?"House prices are going up! Better get on The Ladder!"There are some nice (drawings of) apartments in Bulgaria on the Black Sea. Saw a nice stone cottage in Connemara for only 1M last week.Tell 'im 'e's dreamin
knowledge comes, wisdom lingers
 
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Cuchulainn
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UK economy looks promising

October 20th, 2013, 6:03 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: dd3QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: dd3I can't help but fear a housing bubble in England. I read the same stories here now as I did when it was all kicking off in Ireland.Irrational exhuberance?"House prices are going up! Better get on The Ladder!"There are some nice (drawings of) apartments in Bulgaria on the Black Sea. Saw a nice stone cottage in Connemara for only 1M last week.Tell 'im 'e's dreaminThe correction will be orderly