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JPStanley
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Joined: April 24th, 2014, 4:56 pm

How you think Real Estate in China?

May 5th, 2014, 7:34 pm

Hey all, how you guys think about the real estate market in China recently?Do you think the next bubble is existing in Chinese real estate?
 
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DominicConnor
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Joined: July 14th, 2002, 3:00 am

How you think Real Estate in China?

May 6th, 2014, 6:51 am

My view is that it is not a single bubble, rather it is a froth of N bubbles in specific areas, so I expect to see spikes up and down at the same time, caused inter alia by the way that you don't really "own" things in China and a scarily dysfunctional banking system.In it's own way that is worse than the standard "western" bubble because some people will make extraordinary profits, both in % terms and absolute cash value by selling out of the spike downs and buying into the spike ups. Some of this will be skill or else luck and being China these will converge on corruption as the government clamps down on extreme events and fraud.So we shall see "flights to quality", investors throwing money at what they perceive to be grossly undervalued assets and the creation of investment vehicles of ever more complexity and opacity.Property prices by their very nature are pretty much always bubbles, of the positive or negative kind, part of this froth of positive bubbles is that for the last 500 years, China has had a negative bubble.
 
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tags
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Joined: February 21st, 2010, 12:58 pm

How you think Real Estate in China?

May 6th, 2014, 1:54 pm

Nomura: China's Property Bubble Has Already Popped
Last edited by tags on May 5th, 2014, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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farmer
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Joined: December 16th, 2002, 7:09 am

How you think Real Estate in China?

May 7th, 2014, 2:59 pm

According to Goldman Sachs, China has recently extended the maturity of her US treasuries. That seems to put them on the same side as Blackrock and El Erian, and opposite Bill Gross. Bill Gross has called the Chinese economy "mystery meat." Maybe if he knew what was in the mystery meat, he would be buying treasuries here also.
 
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JPStanley
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How you think Real Estate in China?

May 9th, 2014, 9:20 pm

It is a really good point. Eastern Bubble, interesting!
 
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MartinGale7
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How you think Real Estate in China?

May 15th, 2014, 7:57 am

Usually the bigger the credit bubble the bigger the eventual pop. Consider previous market darlings. The longer and stronger the bubble grew the worse the consequences. Japan's pop in the early 90s, Iceland's pop in 2008-ish etc. In fact 2008 was obviously more global and will probably repeat as central bankers try to pump the level of credit to match the level which created the last pop. China has been pumped up to epic proportions. This could be a big one.
 
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ctabetter
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How you think Real Estate in China?

May 19th, 2014, 7:17 am

It will explode when is the question