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list1
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Global growth

January 6th, 2016, 12:54 pm

From IMF: Global growth is forecast at 3.5 percent in 2015 and 3.8 percent in 2016Question: How and in what units do they calculate the global growth?
 
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daveangel
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Global growth

January 6th, 2016, 1:06 pm

GDP growth probably adjusted for PPP.
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list1
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Global growth

January 6th, 2016, 2:48 pm

whether they measure GDPs in USD? I am curious about China pledge in Global growth?
 
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daveangel
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Global growth

January 6th, 2016, 3:30 pm

they have to measure it in something. China represents around 13% of global GDP. I think China is still expected to grow by 7% in 2016 so that would contribute around 0.9% to global GDP growth.
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list1
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Global growth

January 6th, 2016, 4:52 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelthey have to measure it in something. China represents around 13% of global GDP. I think China is still expected to grow by 7% in 2016 so that would contribute around 0.9% to global GDP growth.If they calculate in usd then forcast looks doubtful, if it is calculated in yuans then growth might be higher, if calculations take place in index like SDRs units with new comer yuan it might be true. Hence forecast calculations pretty much subjective by using basis unit scaling.
 
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daveangel
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Global growth

January 6th, 2016, 4:59 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: list1QuoteOriginally posted by: daveangelthey have to measure it in something. China represents around 13% of global GDP. I think China is still expected to grow by 7% in 2016 so that would contribute around 0.9% to global GDP growth.If they calculate in usd then forcast looks doubtful, if it is calculated in yuans then growth might be higher, if calculations take place in index like SDRs units with new comer yuan it might be true. Hence forecast calculations pretty much subjective by using basis unit scaling.i think they use a PPP exchange rate... if your point is that the Yuan is going to depreciate significantly.
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list1
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Global growth

January 6th, 2016, 7:13 pm

Purchasing Power Parity is also looks sufficiently subjective factor. PPP is probably a wide basket of goods. If we use American goods it implies one value of PPP, if German or Japan it will be others, ie choosing a particular basket one can get a valuable effect.
 
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daveangel
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Global growth

January 6th, 2016, 7:22 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: list1Purchasing Power Parity is also looks sufficiently subjective factor. PPP is probably a wide basket of goods. If we use American goods it implies one value of PPP, if German or Japan it will be others, ie choosing a particular basket one can get a valuable effect.you will be writing a model for this in a minute
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list1
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Global growth

January 7th, 2016, 2:56 am

There many professional people who got money for this business. When I read this message today on yahoo and oped original site it was World Bank, it was my curiosity to clarify the sense of the information as well as why they compare forecasts and did not provide forecast on 2015 with actual Global growth value for 2015. For example if actual number for 2015 is -0.3% then forecast of 3.8% will be the same as for 2015. Hence without the statement about actual Global growth for 2015 the forecast on 2016 does not have any value.
 
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daveangel
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Global growth

January 7th, 2016, 10:43 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: list1There many professional people who got money for this business. When I read this message today on yahoo and oped original site it was World Bank, it was my curiosity to clarify the sense of the information as well as why they compare forecasts and did not provide forecast on 2015 with actual Global growth value for 2015. For example if actual number for 2015 is -0.3% then forecast of 3.8% will be the same as for 2015. Hence without the statement about actual Global growth for 2015 the forecast on 2016 does not have any value.give them a break - it's still early days in 2016 and we don't have the estimates for Q4 2015 yet. I think global growth is estimated at 2.4% for 2015.
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list1
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Global growth

January 7th, 2016, 12:07 pm

Thanks dave for remarks.
 
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purbani
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Global growth

January 8th, 2016, 7:52 am

Interesting thread. Have been mulling this one over with a view to timing commodities re-entry. Some counters trading at below 20cents to the dollar after near -40% fall in 2015. During the previous commodity 'super cycle' which ended in '89 prices took 10 years to reach the bottom. If one measures the current rout from end 2008 then we are still arguably 2-3 years from the low although one would expect the market to start discounting a year or so ahead. I guess the critical point is how much downside surprise exists in China forecasts. All the behavioural and empirical research I have seen suggests that from the time forecasts start being cut to where they finally end up is typically 40-50% lower than the initial estimate which begs the question of how much is in the price now. On the numbers being bandied around China PPP 13% and forecast Global GDP growth of 3% then every 1% below the, now clearly mythical, 7% China GDP growth number = approx -5% in Global Growth so 3% China GDP would reduce Global Growth by almost 20%.
 
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rmax
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Global growth

January 15th, 2016, 2:57 pm

I think only ever post one link on this part of the forum. But here it is again!Big Mac Index
 
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list1
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Global growth

January 15th, 2016, 4:20 pm

Currency exchange is the environment in which say broadly arbitrage can be exercised. An identical basket of goods is one area where arbitrage principle can be applied. The conclusions about over-under valued currency which are making in PPP basis makes sense but it is too subjective as far as many others factors present their pressure on right level of exchange.
Last edited by list1 on February 21st, 2016, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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vinayak10
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Global growth

February 22nd, 2016, 10:12 pm

Risks to the global outlook persist as they are tilted to the downside and relate to existing adjustments in the global economy: a generalized slowdown in emerging market economies, China?s rebalancing, lower commodity prices, and the gradual exit from extraordinarily accommodative monetary conditions in the United States. If these key issues are not properly managed, global growth could be hindered.
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