SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

wait, ZTE was sanctioned for selling phones containing American parts to Iran and North Korea. I thought you were opposed to sanctions on Iran, at least judging by your rants about President Trump scrapping the Iran Nuclear Deal.

>> So, having traded off US law for making Xi happy

exactly WHAT US law? None.
President Trump decided to sanction ZTE by imposing a $1B fine and ZTE also is required to change its entire board of directors and executive team within 30 days. The US Government will also hold$400M of ZTE's money in escrow to guard against future violations.
No law has been broken here.
Some on Capitol Hill are unhappy, and are talking about changing the law, but that's different from saying that an existing law was brokn.
ZTE uses a lot of American-made parts, and the chi-comms were threatening to retaliate against US companies who (unfortunately) rely on Chinese-made parts.
I thought that you'd be happy that President Trump's skillful diplomacy has averted a trade war with China
Funny
Huawei also seems to have fallen foul of the iran sanctions.
Huawei CFO Wanzhou Meng — also deputy chairwoman and the daughter of Huawei’s founder — was arrested in Vancouver, Canada on December 1, and faces extradition to the U.S. as a result of a DOJ investigation into whether the Chinese telecom giant sold gear to Iran despite sanctions on exports to the region, China immediately lodged a formal protest publishing a statement at its embassy in Canada, and demanding the U.S. and its neighbor "rectify wrongdoings" and free Meng, warning it would "closely follow the development of the issue" and will "take all measures" to protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens.
the arrest took place while the president was having dinner with Xi and a whole lot of other people

there's speculation that the deep staters did this on purpose to scupper any trade deal between the US and China

bearish
Posts: 4344
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

Yes, deep state operative John Bolton knew about it in advance, but didn’t tell his boss because...?

bearish
Posts: 4344
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

Hoping to move beyond this silly trade war thing into a real war, perhaps?

bearish
Posts: 4344
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

Mike Pence did a tremendous job yesterday - maintaining an uncanny likeness to the Lincoln statue while Trump was doing his buffoon act for the cameras, in the presence of Schumer and Pelosi.

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

a message from the President

thank you, Mr President, and do whatever it takes.
You've got our back and we've got yours.

bearish
Posts: 4344
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

I am sure he has forgotten all about his gleeful promise to the cameras on Monday to accept full responsibility for a shutdown. Kind of like having forgotten to tell Cohen to break the law on his behalf and having taken part in various incriminating meetings.

Alan
Topic Author
Posts: 9650
Joined: December 19th, 2001, 4:01 am
Location: California
Contact:

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

Trump and Republicans hated Obamacare because it was a) a legislative cram-down and b) had the forced individual insurance mandate, which they hated. I get that part.

But, they (and by 'they' I mean The Donald) actually had no clue that the law fixed a dysfunctional individual insurance market flaw that allowed insurance companies to not insure pre-existing conditions. That is, they had no clue until their pollsters told them that was actually a real problem that needed fixing and people cared about it.

Now with the law completely blown up by a federal judge, Congress is forced to enact new legislation with bipartisan support. That's good. But, insuring pre-existing conditions is a major cost that somebody has to pay for. Either healthy taxpayers directly and/or the insurance companies and/or other companies in health care. Maybe some kind of surcharge on drug company revenues? The Donald can call it a "pre-existing condition domestic tariff", since he's a tariff kinda guy. But then, how do you keep the surcharge from just getting passed along, making the cost of the program even higher? I don't know.

However it is done, it will be amusing to see Trump and the Republicans spinning these new taxes.  I wonder how many secretly say, 'Gee maybe we should have kept Obamacare'?  You break it, you buy it ...

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

pre-existing conditions are a problem on all sides.
Because pre-existing conditions are covered, a large number of people were gaming the system by forgoing insurance and paying the penalty, knowing that if they got sick, they could just sign up there and then and be covered. Sort of like buying auto insurance after you have a wreck and expecting them to pay for the repairs..

When Romney was Mass. Governor, he introduced Romneycare, which Obama frequently cited when discussing Obamacare. Obama used to mock Romney, claiming that Romneycare and Obamacare were two of a kind.
Romney would ,make the point that he, and the rest of the Rockefeller Republicans, are fine with the individual states doing Romneycare but draw the line at the Federales getting involved.
As to the GOP position, it's probably split between the Rockefeller Republicans like Romney and Paul Ryan who want to kick it back to the states along with block-grants and the freedom caucus who want the federal government to play no role and the states can pick up the slack or not as they choose.

Alan
Topic Author
Posts: 9650
Joined: December 19th, 2001, 4:01 am
Location: California
Contact:

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

It will be unfortunate to see a scenario where states get the issue handed back to them, and some just shrug it off and do nothing. It's basically telling sick people to move to a more enlightened state. Well, I guess they will if they can.  Or vote in a different party.

I think pre-existing conditions is a nation-wide issue that should be addressed federally. The situation pre-Obamacare allowed health insurers free rein to engage in monopoly-type practices with individuals.  Once you enrolled, *any* claim labelled you as having a pre-existing condition. Since you then became un-insurable elsewhere, the insurance company you enrolled with knew they could freely jack up their rates arbitrarily high. That's a gross market distortion, effectively giving your insurer monopoly pricing power. It smells wrong to say, well in Alabama we think that's fine behavior and in California we don't, or vice-versa.

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

meanwhile, the far left continues to attack the independence of the judiciary

What was it Roberts said the other week, "We do not have Obama judges or Trump judges, Bush judges or Clinton judges. What we have is an extraordinary group of dedicated judges doing their level best to do equal right to those appearing before them. That independent judiciary is something we should all be thankful for."

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

bearish
Posts: 4344
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

A nice summary of the state of Trump affairs two years in by CNN today:
"Simply put, Trump's campaign, transition, inaugural committee and presidency are now under active criminal investigation. His business -- the Trump Organization -- and his defunct charity -- The Trump Foundation are also under investigation (the charity investigation is a civil one). His college -- Trump University -- has already been deemed a fraud."

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

as Stalin's sidekick Beria said, "Show me the man and I’ll find you the crime."
They're desperately looking for a crime..
The new NY state AG basically said she was going to go through everything Trump has ever done to try and  find a crime. So much for equal protection under the law.

bearish
Posts: 4344
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

as Stalin's sidekick Beria said, "Show me the man and I’ll find you the crime."
They're desperately looking for a crime..
The new NY state AG basically said she was going to go through everything Trump has ever done to try and  find a crime. So much for equal protection under the law.
Aw - I'm sorry.

ppauper
Posts: 70239
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

### Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

It will be unfortunate to see a scenario where states get the issue handed back to them, and some just shrug it off and do nothing. It's basically telling sick people to move to a more enlightened state. Well, I guess they will if they can.  Or vote in a different party.

I think pre-existing conditions is a nation-wide issue that should be addressed federally. The situation pre-Obamacare allowed health insurers free rein to engage in monopoly-type practices with individuals.  Once you enrolled, *any* claim labelled you as having a pre-existing condition. Since you then became un-insurable elsewhere, the insurance company you enrolled with knew they could freely jack up their rates arbitrarily high. That's a gross market distortion, effectively giving your insurer monopoly pricing power. It smells wrong to say, well in Alabama we think that's fine behavior and in California we don't, or vice-versa.
as you say it's a problem
Health insurance is different from auto insurance because illnesses can last a lifetime versus paying for a new fender. If I were in charge, I'd somehow separate out "long-term conditions" from "short-term conditions" and have some sort of "long-term condition" health insurance whereby the insurance company you're with when you get sick is the one that pays the costs going forward, whether it's for a year, 5 years, 10 years, or life.
And if you chose not to have "long-term condition" health insurance at the time the condition developed, it's the same as not having auto insurance when you have a collision: sucks to be you and you've got to figure out how to pay for it yourself.

I'm sure this has been thought of before, and it hasn't been done, so there's probably problems, and no idea if they are insurmountable.