He is not making things easier for McConnell who has to hang onto the centrist Republicans or else...
Here is one way to analyze possible outcomes (Paul is still busy with Brexit, no doubt, but this could be an interesting side project).
Looking at the electorate state by state:
1) How did they vote in the past few Presidentials? Red (Republican) every time, Blue (Democrat) every time, or do they switch?
2) Determine which senators come from the deep red states and which come from states that shift.
3) Assess the true red neck component in the deep red states - in general and also where does Trump have strongest support now? These Senators probably won't flip, no matter what.
4) How close were the most recent Senate races in the Red/Blue states? The ones that had the slimmest margins may be the most likely to move beyond Rep. party lines to stay tolerable to those voters.
and finally, take the previous article posted here (The Hill) into account.
So, how close is the vote going to be?
Some Senators really will vote their conscience too, but anyone who is up for reelection in 2020 will have the impact in mind, of course.
However, this does not mean blind support for the party and by extension for non-conviction. Especially not if the wild ranting, attacks on Dems/the system, and general craziness continue.
The most interesting question is, in a way, how long can the Republicans go without letting a few more Presidential candidates announce themselves?
It's getting really late, unless you are Mitt Romney (or have similar wealth) and don't have to raise a dime....
Senate.gov - Listing of Senators
2018 US mid-term elections
35 seats contested
Republicans gained 2. (Net seat change)
Democrat Hold: Hawaii, California, Washington, New Mexico, Montana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts
Democrat Gain: Nevada, Arizona
Republican Hold: Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee
Republican Gain: Florida, Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota
ppauper, if you are lurking out there and reading this post, I dedicate this research to you. : D