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Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 19th, 2019, 7:19 pm

So, a very interesting political chess game unfolding now.

Some details for the latecomers (and just to keep this grounded in facts too!)

Bloomberg article on Impeachment Timeline - December 18, 2019

Includes the following details:

Original vote on rules for impeachment passed:

232 Yes - 231 Democrats and 1 Independent
to
196 No - 194 Republicans and 2 Democrats

House vote on Abuse of Power:

230 Yes - 229 Democrats and 1 Independent
197 No - 195 Republicans and 2 Democrats

House vote on Obstruction of Congress:

229 Yes - 228 Democrats and 1 Independent
198 No - 195 Republicans and 3 Democrats

And here is an article from The Hill (like Roll Call, this is another good inside Beltway resource), noting the Republicans who might defect and vote Yes on Impeachment:

Here are the Senate Republicans who could vote to convict Trump - The Hill (December 7)

Susan Collins (Maine)
Mitt Romney (Utah)
Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)

"After Collins, Romney and Murkowski, there is a larger group of GOP senators who have publicly or privately expressed concern over Trump’s withholding of military aid to Ukraine and his attempt to persuade Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to conduct a corruption investigation.

The group includes GOP lawmakers such as Sens. Rob Portman (Ohio), Ron Johnson (Wis.), Tim Scott (S.C.), Marco Rubio (Fla.), and Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), who is not seeking reelection. But none of them are seen as being close to voting for any articles of impeachment, barring a major revelation of new information, say Senate GOP aides....

Other potential defectors on an impeachment vote are Republicans facing tough reelections such as Sens. Cory Gardner (Colo.), who is seeking another term in a state that voted for Clinton in 2016, and Martha McSally (Ariz.), a top Democratic target."

And Nancy Pelosi has delayed the articles...you can read up on that for yourselves!

Bottom Line: To Be Continued

Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
- W. S.

bearish, I'd recommend buying a nice bottle of aquavit, some smoked salmon, (lemon, dill, cucumber & sour cream, to your taste), and your favorite bread - 
sit back, dine well, and enjoy the holidays! : )
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 19th, 2019, 7:45 pm

 W. S.
Mrs. Macbeth?
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 19th, 2019, 7:52 pm

 W. S.
Mrs. Macbeth?
Shall I compare thee to a winter's day?

It is 16 degrees F ( about -9 degrees C) here today.

Damn cold!  : D

Music to warm the soul (except for politicians - their hearts are mainly measured in K, I think, with a few anomalies).

Cold, Cold Heart - Norah Jones

and going back aways...

Cold, Cold Heart - Hank Williams
 
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Cuchulainn
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Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
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Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 19th, 2019, 8:13 pm

Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
User avatar
bearish
Posts: 5899
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 20th, 2019, 1:31 am

So, a very interesting political chess game unfolding now.

Some details for the latecomers (and just to keep this grounded in facts too!)

Bloomberg article on Impeachment Timeline - December 18, 2019

Includes the following details:

Original vote on rules for impeachment passed:

232 Yes - 231 Democrats and 1 Independent
to
196 No - 194 Republicans and 2 Democrats

House vote on Abuse of Power:

230 Yes - 229 Democrats and 1 Independent
197 No - 195 Republicans and 2 Democrats

House vote on Obstruction of Congress:

229 Yes - 228 Democrats and 1 Independent
198 No - 195 Republicans and 3 Democrats

And here is an article from The Hill (like Roll Call, this is another good inside Beltway resource), noting the Republicans who might defect and vote Yes on Impeachment:

Here are the Senate Republicans who could vote to convict Trump - The Hill (December 7)

Susan Collins (Maine)
Mitt Romney (Utah)
Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)

"After Collins, Romney and Murkowski, there is a larger group of GOP senators who have publicly or privately expressed concern over Trump’s withholding of military aid to Ukraine and his attempt to persuade Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to conduct a corruption investigation.

The group includes GOP lawmakers such as Sens. Rob Portman (Ohio), Ron Johnson (Wis.), Tim Scott (S.C.), Marco Rubio (Fla.), and Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), who is not seeking reelection. But none of them are seen as being close to voting for any articles of impeachment, barring a major revelation of new information, say Senate GOP aides....

Other potential defectors on an impeachment vote are Republicans facing tough reelections such as Sens. Cory Gardner (Colo.), who is seeking another term in a state that voted for Clinton in 2016, and Martha McSally (Ariz.), a top Democratic target."

And Nancy Pelosi has delayed the articles...you can read up on that for yourselves!

Bottom Line: To Be Continued

Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
- W. S.

bearish, I'd recommend buying a nice bottle of aquavit, some smoked salmon, (lemon, dill, cucumber & sour cream, to your taste), and your favorite bread - 
sit back, dine well, and enjoy the holidays! : )
Nice summary! The aquavit is in place, on account that I always feel like I should pick up something in the duty free zone when leaving Norway. And then I don't drink it very much. While smoked salmon is good, I prefer to make my own gravlaks, which is salmon cured by salt and sugar and seasoned with fresh dill, black pepper and a splash of said aquavit. On the bread front, I will either bake my own or resort to the excellent products sold by the Danish bakery in Grand Central (yes, the train station). 
 
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bearish
Posts: 5899
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 20th, 2019, 3:05 am

Trump is out there twittering that the Democratic party is anti-American. It would be fair to counter that the GOP (under his jackboot) is anti-world. Brain dead, addled, and deserving of very bad things coming their way. We could point out his idiocy regarding high crimes and misdemeanors (like, he thinks it has something to do with crimes, only worse), but it would be pointless. We are rapidly heading toward civil war. Which, of course, is not really civil at all...
 
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Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 20th, 2019, 3:22 am

He is not making things easier for McConnell who has to hang onto the centrist Republicans or else...

Here is one way to analyze possible outcomes (Paul is still busy with Brexit, no doubt, but this could be an interesting side project).

Looking at the electorate state by state:

1) How did they vote in the past few Presidentials? Red (Republican) every time, Blue (Democrat) every time,  or do they switch?

2) Determine which senators come from the deep red states and which come from states that shift.  

3) Assess the true red neck component in the deep red states - in general and also where does Trump have strongest support now? These Senators probably won't flip, no matter what.

4) How close were the most recent Senate races in the Red/Blue states?  The ones that had the slimmest margins may be the most likely to move beyond Rep. party lines to stay tolerable to those voters.

and finally, take the previous article posted here (The Hill) into account.

So, how close is the vote going to be?

Some Senators really will vote their conscience too, but anyone who is up for reelection in 2020 will have the impact in mind, of course.

However, this does not mean blind support for the party and by extension for non-conviction.  Especially not if the wild ranting, attacks on Dems/the system, and general craziness continue.

The most interesting question is, in a way, how long can the Republicans go without letting a few more Presidential candidates announce themselves?

It's getting really late, unless you are Mitt Romney (or have similar wealth) and don't have to raise a dime....

Supplemental Information:

Senate.gov - Listing of Senators

2018 US mid-term elections

Notes: 

35 seats contested

Republicans gained 2. (Net seat change)

Democrat Hold: Hawaii, California, Washington, New Mexico, Montana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts

Democrat Gain: Nevada, Arizona

Republican Hold: Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee

Republican Gain: Florida, Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota

Image

ppauper, if you are lurking out there and reading this post, I dedicate this research to you.  : D
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 9665
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 20th, 2019, 4:29 am

Even if he stays in the office, the history will remember him as who he really was.

Exegi monumentum aere perrenius - too bad so many people build it in honour of their stupidity.

Image

Something for cool hearts >^o.o^<
 
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Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 20th, 2019, 12:59 pm

The point is that just because there is a slim R majority in the Senate does not mean instant acquittal, in spite of the noise to that effect in the media.

And the 2020 elections are the focus, much more than how T will be viewed in history.

But now it is time to enjoy the holidays and this whole thing can be put on Ice. 

Ice, Ice, Baby - Vanilla Ice
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 20th, 2019, 1:14 pm

Hold your horses,

Evangelical publication calls for Trump's removal from office

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/19/politics/christianity-today-op-ed-trump-removal-office/index.html

A far left magazine, or very “progressive,” as some would call it, which has been doing poorly and hasn’t been involved with the Billy Graham family for many years, Christianity Today, knows nothing about reading a perfect transcript of a routine phone call and would rather.....
Last edited by Cuchulainn on December 20th, 2019, 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 20th, 2019, 1:17 pm

Yes, not a sure thing, even from the (ultra) conservative side.

Re: A far left magazine... 

Nay, from your CNN article:

"Speaking to Berman on CNN's "New Day" Friday, Galli said Trump's characterization of his magazine as "far left" is "far from accurate."

"We consider ourselves and most people consider us a pretty centrist magazine in the evangelical world. ... We rarely comment on politics unless we feel it rises to the level of some national or concern that is really important. And this would be a case.""
 
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bearish
Posts: 5899
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 20th, 2019, 3:16 pm

I think we can count the number of "moderate Republicans" on the fingers of no hands at all. For reasons that I cannot comprehend, blind loyalty to Trump is the order of the day. 
 
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Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 20th, 2019, 3:30 pm

I think we can count the number of "moderate Republicans" on the fingers of no hands at all. For reasons that I cannot comprehend, blind loyalty to Trump is the order of the day. 
Some interesting data - not to rebut your comment, but as a Christmas gift to you. : )

Five Thirty Eight - Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump

Broken down by Senate, House, and Vote.

And now I am off to make Solstice cookies!  Enjoy!
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 21st, 2019, 12:49 pm

Yes, not a sure thing, even from the (ultra) conservative side.

Re: A far left magazine... 

There possibly could be certain elements in this community which advocate far left and socialist policies such giving alms to the poor, driving the money lenders from the Temple and free wine.

And not to mention eco-Marxists.
Step over the gap, not into it. Watch the space between platform and train.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
User avatar
trackstar
Posts: 27538
Joined: August 28th, 2008, 1:53 pm

Re: Trump -- the last 100 days

December 21st, 2019, 1:07 pm

Yes, not a sure thing, even from the (ultra) conservative side.

Re: A far left magazine... 

There possibly could be certain elements in this community which advocate far left and socialist policies such giving alms to the poor, driving the money lenders from the Temple and free wine.

And not to mention eco-Marxists.
Free wine sounds good - I am going to a free wine tasting this afternoon in fact.

(Of course, I will buy a bottle or two to support the cause).

On the political front, if things really get messy here, maybe I will move to Ireland.

I have the requisite grandmother and paperwork for citizenship. : )

What county would you recommend?

Specifications: horse country, a nice view - a vast green expanse, lake, or ocean are equally good) and a decent airport within 1- 1.5 hours from my house.
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