SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

 
User avatar
Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 9298
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

June 30th, 2019, 5:40 am

“We kept telling them we had three years to save the planet, and then we told them we had five years, then two, then eight, but they wouldn’t listen.”
 
User avatar
katastrofa
Posts: 8036
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

June 30th, 2019, 10:33 am

People will continue to count years even when there's nothing left to save. I've recently visited Inishbofin - the "colonies" of seals and sea birds are now reduced to single animals clinging to the rocks. The waters are barren - they have nothing to eat. I just hope I won't have to look at this much longer.
 
User avatar
ISayMoo
Posts: 1988
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

June 30th, 2019, 5:08 pm

EU and it's fishing "regulation".
 
User avatar
bearish
Posts: 4893
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 9th, 2019, 12:56 am

Superficially, this story might belong in the Trump thread, but the house organ of the no-deal Tories decided to open their pay wall for Trump disses May since, presumably, they think it will strengthen the resolve of the Farage-Johnson-Mogg supporters. 
 
User avatar
bearish
Posts: 4893
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 13th, 2019, 9:32 pm

So I am playing around with the idea of putting on a PA trade that will pay out if Boris does his thing by Halloween (or even a bit later). Slightly OTM January puts on EWU (iShares ETF tracking the MSCI UK index) look favorable, with implied vols in the 10% range last I looked. As I understand it, that ETF (which trades in USD) does not do any currency hedging, and should therefore capture both the domestic share price action as well as the drop in Sterling. And I am pretty sure our compliance rules will actually allow me to buy these things. Any better ideas?
 
User avatar
katastrofa
Posts: 8036
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 13th, 2019, 9:41 pm

So cliché...
Image
 
User avatar
bearish
Posts: 4893
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 13th, 2019, 9:52 pm

One is reminded of the old joke about why computer scientists get Halloween and Christmas confused. Because Oct 31 = Dec 25
 
User avatar
tw
Posts: 1054
Joined: May 10th, 2002, 3:30 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 14th, 2019, 7:42 am

So I am playing around with the idea of putting on a PA trade that will pay out if Boris does his thing by Halloween (or even a bit later). Slightly OTM January puts on EWU (iShares ETF tracking the MSCI UK index) look favorable, with implied vols in the 10% range last I looked. As I understand it, that ETF (which trades in USD) does not do any currency hedging, and should therefore capture both the domestic share price action as well as the drop in Sterling. And I am pretty sure our compliance rules will actually allow me to buy these things. Any better ideas?
what does the term structure look like for that product? Oct vs. Jan vs. Apr?  
 
User avatar
katastrofa
Posts: 8036
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 14th, 2019, 9:42 am

One is reminded of the old joke about why computer scientists get Halloween and Christmas confused. Because Oct 31 = Dec 25
Great joke, but I think the last (?) version of BoJo's plan mentioned Xmas :-)
For the record, I'm not a computer scientist - I despise them! ;-D
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 59669
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 14th, 2019, 11:21 am

The Oxford Union was a place where bluster, self-belief and rhetorical flourish trounced detail, groundwork and planning. David McWillliams, Irish Times July 6 2019

Not how the technocratic, detail-oriented graduates of the College of Europe have been trained. Not so much bluff nor swashbuckling.
(David McW is a graduate)

No deal.

Sir Ivan Rogers had to resign because he said UK-EU negotiations would take 10 years to effect.
He said that May and her advisers' approach was to attempt to deal directly with the leaders of the major governments within the EU but the "reflex in the British system (is) always to think that we can deal direct with the organ grinders and not the monkeys: it never works like that. It didn’t work like that in the Cameron renegotiation either. That stuff is not done in the way British politics works, leader to leader. It’s done via the bureaucrats, and the sherpas, and the people at the top of the institutions.


UK ambassador got shafted (by his own group). The next one will probably be BREXIT poodle?

That's it in a nub.
 
User avatar
Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 9298
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 14th, 2019, 11:49 am

A third-rate europhile PM sent in a third-rate europhile negotiating team to negotiate with people whose salaries and pension are proportional to how long they can delay anything they do. Not rocket science.

If you think that’s negotiating then I have a bridge to sell that you might be interested in.
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 59669
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 14th, 2019, 2:56 pm

You mean like this guy?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ORNfD8e_sk

At least the Incumbents seem to be financially independent so they won't care one way or the other. There's always journalism and the tour if things go pear-shaped.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on July 14th, 2019, 3:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
ISayMoo
Posts: 1988
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 14th, 2019, 3:07 pm

It looks like Boris is on his way to become a PM. Let's see how a true Brexiteer handles this stuff.

*opens popcorn*
 
User avatar
Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 9298
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 14th, 2019, 3:09 pm

It may be a disaster, he might well fail. But at least he will try. And that's more than you can say about most MPs.
 
User avatar
ISayMoo
Posts: 1988
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

July 14th, 2019, 4:23 pm

"at least he will try"


Boris Johnson always had a Churchillian complex, but I didn't expect him to aspire to have another Gallipoli.
ABOUT WILMOTT

PW by JB

Wilmott.com has been "Serving the Quantitative Finance Community" since 2001. Continued...


Twitter LinkedIn Instagram

JOBS BOARD

JOBS BOARD

Looking for a quant job, risk, algo trading,...? Browse jobs here...


GZIP: On