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Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: June 30th, 2019, 5:40 am
by Paul
“We kept telling them we had three years to save the planet, and then we told them we had five years, then two, then eight, but they wouldn’t listen.”

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: June 30th, 2019, 10:33 am
by katastrofa
People will continue to count years even when there's nothing left to save. I've recently visited Inishbofin - the "colonies" of seals and sea birds are now reduced to single animals clinging to the rocks. The waters are barren - they have nothing to eat. I just hope I won't have to look at this much longer.

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: June 30th, 2019, 5:08 pm
by ISayMoo
EU and it's fishing "regulation".

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: July 9th, 2019, 12:56 am
by bearish
Superficially, this story might belong in the Trump thread, but the house organ of the no-deal Tories decided to open their pay wall for Trump disses May since, presumably, they think it will strengthen the resolve of the Farage-Johnson-Mogg supporters. 

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: July 13th, 2019, 9:32 pm
by bearish
So I am playing around with the idea of putting on a PA trade that will pay out if Boris does his thing by Halloween (or even a bit later). Slightly OTM January puts on EWU (iShares ETF tracking the MSCI UK index) look favorable, with implied vols in the 10% range last I looked. As I understand it, that ETF (which trades in USD) does not do any currency hedging, and should therefore capture both the domestic share price action as well as the drop in Sterling. And I am pretty sure our compliance rules will actually allow me to buy these things. Any better ideas?

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: July 13th, 2019, 9:41 pm
by katastrofa
So cliché...
Image

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: July 13th, 2019, 9:52 pm
by bearish
One is reminded of the old joke about why computer scientists get Halloween and Christmas confused. Because Oct 31 = Dec 25

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: July 14th, 2019, 7:42 am
by tw
So I am playing around with the idea of putting on a PA trade that will pay out if Boris does his thing by Halloween (or even a bit later). Slightly OTM January puts on EWU (iShares ETF tracking the MSCI UK index) look favorable, with implied vols in the 10% range last I looked. As I understand it, that ETF (which trades in USD) does not do any currency hedging, and should therefore capture both the domestic share price action as well as the drop in Sterling. And I am pretty sure our compliance rules will actually allow me to buy these things. Any better ideas?
what does the term structure look like for that product? Oct vs. Jan vs. Apr?  

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: July 14th, 2019, 9:42 am
by katastrofa
One is reminded of the old joke about why computer scientists get Halloween and Christmas confused. Because Oct 31 = Dec 25
Great joke, but I think the last (?) version of BoJo's plan mentioned Xmas :-)
For the record, I'm not a computer scientist - I despise them! ;-D

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: July 14th, 2019, 11:21 am
by Cuchulainn
The Oxford Union was a place where bluster, self-belief and rhetorical flourish trounced detail, groundwork and planning. David McWillliams, Irish Times July 6 2019

Not how the technocratic, detail-oriented graduates of the College of Europe have been trained. Not so much bluff nor swashbuckling.
(David McW is a graduate)

No deal.

Sir Ivan Rogers had to resign because he said UK-EU negotiations would take 10 years to effect.
He said that May and her advisers' approach was to attempt to deal directly with the leaders of the major governments within the EU but the "reflex in the British system (is) always to think that we can deal direct with the organ grinders and not the monkeys: it never works like that. It didn’t work like that in the Cameron renegotiation either. That stuff is not done in the way British politics works, leader to leader. It’s done via the bureaucrats, and the sherpas, and the people at the top of the institutions.


UK ambassador got shafted (by his own group). The next one will probably be BREXIT poodle?

That's it in a nub.

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: July 14th, 2019, 11:49 am
by Paul
A third-rate europhile PM sent in a third-rate europhile negotiating team to negotiate with people whose salaries and pension are proportional to how long they can delay anything they do. Not rocket science.

If you think that’s negotiating then I have a bridge to sell that you might be interested in.

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: July 14th, 2019, 2:56 pm
by Cuchulainn
You mean like this guy?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ORNfD8e_sk

At least the Incumbents seem to be financially independent so they won't care one way or the other. There's always journalism and the tour if things go pear-shaped.

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: July 14th, 2019, 3:07 pm
by ISayMoo
It looks like Boris is on his way to become a PM. Let's see how a true Brexiteer handles this stuff.

*opens popcorn*

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: July 14th, 2019, 3:09 pm
by Paul
It may be a disaster, he might well fail. But at least he will try. And that's more than you can say about most MPs.

Re: Are you ready for Brexit?

Posted: July 14th, 2019, 4:23 pm
by ISayMoo
"at least he will try"


Boris Johnson always had a Churchillian complex, but I didn't expect him to aspire to have another Gallipoli.