SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

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Paul
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Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

General Election 2019

November 14th, 2019, 2:31 am

Current forecast: 75% chance of a Conservative majority. 
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: General Election 2019

November 14th, 2019, 1:08 pm

That's a nice crisp number. Was it rounded up?
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Approach your problem from the right end and begin with the answers. Then one day, perhaps you will find the final question..
R. van Gulik
 
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Paul
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Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 14th, 2019, 3:20 pm

Up, down and sideways. There’s an enormous margin of error, so it was the sensible thing to do!
 
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Paul
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Re: General Election 2019

November 14th, 2019, 8:36 pm

Labour ex MPs are telling people to vote Conservative. Conservative ex MPs are saying they are voting Lib Dem. And now a Lib Dem saying to vote Labour.

Round and round she goes. Where she stops nobody knows!
 
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Paul
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Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 15th, 2019, 5:37 am

Here's a simple plot of seats versus percentage for elections since 1970 for three main parties. I have taken some liberty with the definition of Liberal Democrat. (But they started it.) It shows very clearly the well-known advantage that Labour have thanks to shifting demographics. Years ago the Boundary Commission recommended redrawing some constituencies to correct for this. Muppet Cameron never got around to implementing this. (I did mention it as a priority in a blog.)
SeatsVsPercentage.png
 
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Cuchulainn
Posts: 60457
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
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Re: General Election 2019

November 15th, 2019, 11:09 am

I would say that it is difficult to predict an outcome since the politicians have built their campaign along ideological lines, many of which are in the realm of fantasy.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Approach your problem from the right end and begin with the answers. Then one day, perhaps you will find the final question..
R. van Gulik
 
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ISayMoo
Posts: 2205
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 15th, 2019, 11:22 am

  Labour is losing the urban middle class vote, from what I'm seeing around me.
 
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Cuchulainn
Posts: 60457
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
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Re: General Election 2019

November 15th, 2019, 11:56 am

  Labour is losing the urban middle class vote, from what I'm seeing around me.
Why is that?
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Approach your problem from the right end and begin with the answers. Then one day, perhaps you will find the final question..
R. van Gulik
 
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ISayMoo
Posts: 2205
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 15th, 2019, 1:38 pm

Anti-Semitism.
 
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Cuchulainn
Posts: 60457
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

Re: General Election 2019

November 15th, 2019, 3:20 pm

  Labour is losing the urban middle class vote, from what I'm seeing around me.
Or maybe they are champagne socialists.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Approach your problem from the right end and begin with the answers. Then one day, perhaps you will find the final question..
R. van Gulik
 
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Paul
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Posts: 9714
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 15th, 2019, 3:22 pm

I would agree about the anti semitism.

Other things don’t worry the trendy leftists as much as racism does. Supporting terrorists = hating your own country, v trendy. Marxism, doesn’t bother them likewise since the practicalities of economics won’t affect them.

I would expect luvvies and the posh to go quiet for a while why they check with their friends what they are supposed to think. They’ll then all regroupthink to the Lib Dems.
 
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Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 9714
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 15th, 2019, 3:41 pm

63.8% chance of Conservative majority with expected seats 336.

73.1% chance with help of DUP.
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 8489
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: General Election 2019

November 15th, 2019, 6:00 pm

Imagine how the Jews must feel with the fast progressing Islamisation on one side and on the other the good old antisemitism rearing its nasty face from the European crowd. Nobody deserves such karma:
Image

BTW, one has to know what it means to live in a communist country (although I remember it mostly from my familiars' discourteous jokes) to feel this funny cold shivers running up their spine at the promise of Internet broadband for all. I hope my grandma's saying isn't haunting me: if you want to know the future, look into the past.
 
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ISayMoo
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Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 15th, 2019, 6:18 pm

"fast progressing Islamisation"

Where?
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 8489
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: General Election 2019

November 15th, 2019, 6:51 pm

E.g. in East London.
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