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Paul
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Posts: 6598
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 20th, 2019, 5:00 am

Prob. C majority 93%, majority of 89. (These numbers jumping about more than  I am comfortable with.)

Prob. L majority 0%. There just aren't enough decimal places in the world...
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 7430
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: General Election 2019

November 20th, 2019, 5:13 am

Will the last person to leave the Labour Party please take down the swastika banners and fold them away neatly.
You are invoking Godwin's Law. Never a good sign. Looks as if you are getting a bit jittery?

Image
Bolsheviks or Nazis, or the sum of all evil?
 
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Cuchulainn
Posts: 20203
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: 20, 000

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 11:43 am

Bolsheviks, how quaint. LOL
 
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Paul
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Posts: 6598
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 7:19 pm

[$]\mbox{ Party }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Seats (Mean) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Low (10%) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ High (10%) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Majority }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Con }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 358 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 323 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 391 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 66 }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Lab }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 215 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 182 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 249 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Lib Dem }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 19 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 13 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 26 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ }[$]
________________________________________________

[$]\mbox{ Prob. Con majority }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\,\mbox{ 88.8% }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Prob. Lab majority }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 0.0% }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Prob. Con majority with DUP }\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 93.6% }[$]
 
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Cuchulainn
Posts: 20203
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: 20, 000

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 7:45 pm

Basically, voters in NI are p*ssed off with both DUP and Sinn Fein.  

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/election-northern-ireland-2019-dup-mps

Careful now.
 
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Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 6598
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 9:19 pm

Polling in the run up to 2017 election with final results:
2017.png
 
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Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 6598
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 9:29 pm

A similar collapse in Con votes this time would result in:

[$]\mbox{ Party }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Seats (Mean) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Low (10%) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ High (10%) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Majority }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Con }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 333 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 296 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 370 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 16 }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Lab }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 237 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 202 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 272 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Lib Dem }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 22 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 15 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 29 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ }[$]
________________________________________________

[$]\mbox{ Prob. Con majority }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\,\mbox{ 60.6% }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Prob. Lab majority }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 0.2% }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Prob. Con majority with DUP }\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 74.6% }[$]
 
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ISayMoo
Posts: 2332
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 11:10 pm

A majority of 16 is probably too low to "deliver Brexit", because there will surely be a number of Tory Remainers who will rebel at the last moment.
 
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Paul
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Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 11:20 pm

Probably. Even though they’ve supposedly all promised to deliver. But there’ll be DUP. And I hope some independents. E.g. one of the few decent Labour MPs, now ex Labour, Frank Field.
 
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ISayMoo
Posts: 2332
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 11:33 pm

Is he standing for re-election?
 
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Paul
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Posts: 6598
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 11:58 pm

Yes, as Birkenhead Social Justice Party.
 
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ISayMoo
Posts: 2332
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 22nd, 2019, 12:34 am

Not the People's Social Justice Front of Birkenhead?
 
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ISayMoo
Posts: 2332
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 22nd, 2019, 12:35 am

Bolsheviks, how quaint. LOL
Big spenders: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50497288

And it's all going to be paid for by people like us.
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 7430
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: General Election 2019

November 22nd, 2019, 12:52 am

Bolsheviks, how quaint. LOL
Momentum (Mensheviks = Lethargy?)
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 7430
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: General Election 2019

November 22nd, 2019, 5:27 am

Bolsheviks, how quaint. LOL
Big spenders: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50497288

And it's all going to be paid for by people like us.
How do you know they are telling the truth?


Boris Johnson announces foreign buyers will pay extra stamp duty for homes in England 
Cool! The property market will finally bump up!