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Paul
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Posts: 9760
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 20th, 2019, 5:00 am

Prob. C majority 93%, majority of 89. (These numbers jumping about more than  I am comfortable with.)

Prob. L majority 0%. There just aren't enough decimal places in the world...
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 8518
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: General Election 2019

November 20th, 2019, 5:13 am

Will the last person to leave the Labour Party please take down the swastika banners and fold them away neatly.
You are invoking Godwin's Law. Never a good sign. Looks as if you are getting a bit jittery?

Image
Bolsheviks or Nazis, or the sum of all evil?
 
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Cuchulainn
Posts: 60501
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
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Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 11:43 am

Bolsheviks, how quaint. LOL
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Approach your problem from the right end and begin with the answers. Then one day, perhaps you will find the final question..
R. van Gulik
 
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Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 9760
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 7:19 pm

[$]\mbox{ Party }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Seats (Mean) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Low (10%) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ High (10%) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Majority }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Con }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 358 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 323 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 391 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 66 }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Lab }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 215 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 182 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 249 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Lib Dem }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 19 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 13 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 26 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ }[$]
________________________________________________

[$]\mbox{ Prob. Con majority }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\,\mbox{ 88.8% }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Prob. Lab majority }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 0.0% }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Prob. Con majority with DUP }\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 93.6% }[$]
 
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Cuchulainn
Posts: 60501
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
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Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 7:45 pm

Basically, voters in NI are p*ssed off with both DUP and Sinn Fein.  

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/election-northern-ireland-2019-dup-mps

Careful now.
http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl

Approach your problem from the right end and begin with the answers. Then one day, perhaps you will find the final question..
R. van Gulik
 
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Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 9760
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 9:19 pm

Polling in the run up to 2017 election with final results:
2017.png
 
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Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 9760
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 9:29 pm

A similar collapse in Con votes this time would result in:

[$]\mbox{ Party }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Seats (Mean) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Low (10%) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ High (10%) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Majority }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Con }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 333 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 296 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 370 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 16 }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Lab }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 237 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 202 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 272 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Lib Dem }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 22 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 15 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 29 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ }[$]
________________________________________________

[$]\mbox{ Prob. Con majority }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\,\mbox{ 60.6% }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Prob. Lab majority }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 0.2% }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Prob. Con majority with DUP }\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 74.6% }[$]
 
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ISayMoo
Posts: 2206
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 11:10 pm

A majority of 16 is probably too low to "deliver Brexit", because there will surely be a number of Tory Remainers who will rebel at the last moment.
 
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Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 9760
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 11:20 pm

Probably. Even though they’ve supposedly all promised to deliver. But there’ll be DUP. And I hope some independents. E.g. one of the few decent Labour MPs, now ex Labour, Frank Field.
 
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ISayMoo
Posts: 2206
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 11:33 pm

Is he standing for re-election?
 
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Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 9760
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 21st, 2019, 11:58 pm

Yes, as Birkenhead Social Justice Party.
 
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ISayMoo
Posts: 2206
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 22nd, 2019, 12:34 am

Not the People's Social Justice Front of Birkenhead?
 
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ISayMoo
Posts: 2206
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: General Election 2019

November 22nd, 2019, 12:35 am

Bolsheviks, how quaint. LOL
Big spenders: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50497288

And it's all going to be paid for by people like us.
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 8518
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: General Election 2019

November 22nd, 2019, 12:52 am

Bolsheviks, how quaint. LOL
Momentum (Mensheviks = Lethargy?)
 
User avatar
katastrofa
Posts: 8518
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: General Election 2019

November 22nd, 2019, 5:27 am

Bolsheviks, how quaint. LOL
Big spenders: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50497288

And it's all going to be paid for by people like us.
How do you know they are telling the truth?


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