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Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 20th, 2019, 5:00 am
by Paul
Prob. C majority 93%, majority of 89. (These numbers jumping about more than  I am comfortable with.)

Prob. L majority 0%. There just aren't enough decimal places in the world...

Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 20th, 2019, 5:13 am
by katastrofa
Will the last person to leave the Labour Party please take down the swastika banners and fold them away neatly.
You are invoking Godwin's Law. Never a good sign. Looks as if you are getting a bit jittery?

Image
Bolsheviks or Nazis, or the sum of all evil?

Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 21st, 2019, 11:43 am
by Cuchulainn
Bolsheviks, how quaint. LOL

Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 21st, 2019, 7:19 pm
by Paul
[$]\mbox{ Party }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Seats (Mean) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Low (10%) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ High (10%) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Majority }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Con }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 358 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 323 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 391 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 66 }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Lab }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 215 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 182 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 249 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Lib Dem }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 19 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 13 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 26 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ }[$]
________________________________________________

[$]\mbox{ Prob. Con majority }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\,\mbox{ 88.8% }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Prob. Lab majority }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 0.0% }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Prob. Con majority with DUP }\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 93.6% }[$]

Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 21st, 2019, 7:45 pm
by Cuchulainn
Basically, voters in NI are p*ssed off with both DUP and Sinn Fein.  

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/election-northern-ireland-2019-dup-mps

Careful now.

Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 21st, 2019, 9:19 pm
by Paul
Polling in the run up to 2017 election with final results:
2017.png

Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 21st, 2019, 9:29 pm
by Paul
A similar collapse in Con votes this time would result in:

[$]\mbox{ Party }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Seats (Mean) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Low (10%) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ High (10%) }\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ Majority }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Con }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 333 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 296 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 370 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 16 }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Lab }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 237 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 202 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 272 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Lib Dem }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 22 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 15 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 29 }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ }[$]
________________________________________________

[$]\mbox{ Prob. Con majority }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\,\mbox{ 60.6% }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Prob. Lab majority }\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 0.2% }[$]
[$]\mbox{ Prob. Con majority with DUP }\;\;\;\;\mbox{ 74.6% }[$]

Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 21st, 2019, 11:10 pm
by ISayMoo
A majority of 16 is probably too low to "deliver Brexit", because there will surely be a number of Tory Remainers who will rebel at the last moment.

Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 21st, 2019, 11:20 pm
by Paul
Probably. Even though they’ve supposedly all promised to deliver. But there’ll be DUP. And I hope some independents. E.g. one of the few decent Labour MPs, now ex Labour, Frank Field.

Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 21st, 2019, 11:33 pm
by ISayMoo
Is he standing for re-election?

Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 21st, 2019, 11:58 pm
by Paul
Yes, as Birkenhead Social Justice Party.

Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 22nd, 2019, 12:34 am
by ISayMoo
Not the People's Social Justice Front of Birkenhead?

Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 22nd, 2019, 12:35 am
by ISayMoo
Bolsheviks, how quaint. LOL
Big spenders: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50497288

And it's all going to be paid for by people like us.

Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 22nd, 2019, 12:52 am
by katastrofa
Bolsheviks, how quaint. LOL
Momentum (Mensheviks = Lethargy?)

Re: General Election 2019

Posted: November 22nd, 2019, 5:27 am
by katastrofa
Bolsheviks, how quaint. LOL
Big spenders: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50497288

And it's all going to be paid for by people like us.
How do you know they are telling the truth?


Boris Johnson announces foreign buyers will pay extra stamp duty for homes in England 
Cool! The property market will finally bump up!