In relation to the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the process for nominating and confirming a new Supreme Court Justice at this stage of a Presidential election cycle, here is some useful information:
Appointment and confirmation to the Supreme Court of the United States - Wikipedia
Note the following:
1) The average and median time for confirmation - about 2.3 - 2.3 months.
"According to the Congressional Research Service, the average number of days from nomination to final Senate vote since 1975 is 67 days (2.2 months), while the median is 71 days (or 2.3 months). "
2) How things have gone in the past, in what could be the final year of a Presidency.
"Law professors Jason Mazzone and Robin Kar published a study in 2016 in which they wrote that a detailed analysis of Senate history does not support a deliberate inter-presidential transfer of nominating power from one president to the next. In their view, an actual vacancy ought to be viewed differently from a vacancy that is announced in advance but never actually vacated ("NV"); an elected president who makes a nomination ought to be viewed differently from a president-by-succession ("S"); and, a nomination made post-election-of-successor ("PE") should be distinguished from a nomination made earlier.
Following is a list of those people who were nominated to the Supreme Court during the last year of a president's last term.[C] This list does not include presidents who never had an opportunity to serve what would have been their last year, due to resignation or death."
See full listing on the Wikipedia link above.
3) How does it work for blocking nominations and filibusters. Pay attention to pre- and post-2017 processes.
"Senate cloture rules historically required a two-thirds affirmative vote to advance nominations to a vote; this was changed to a three-fifths supermajority in 1975. In November 2013, the then-Democratic Senate majority eliminated the filibuster for executive branch nominees and judicial nominees except for Supreme Court nominees by invoking the so-called nuclear option. In April 2017, the Republican Senate majority applied the nuclear option to Supreme Court nominations as well, enabling the nominations of Trump nominees Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh to proceed to a vote.
"Prior to 2017, a successful filibuster threat could add the requirement of a supermajority of 60 needed in favor of cloture, which would allow debate to end and force a final vote on confirmation. Under the old rule, a nominee could be filibustered once debate on the nomination had begun in the full Senate. A filibuster indefinitely prolongs the debate, preventing a final vote on the nominee.
... (history and then after 2017)
"The Republican majority responded by changing the rules to allow for filibusters of Supreme Court nominations to be broken with only 51 votes rather than 60. The precedent for this action had been set in November 2013, when the Democrats, who then held the majority, changed the rules, lowering the threshold for advancing nominations to lower court and executive branch positions from 60 votes to a simple majority, but explicitly excluded Supreme Court nominations from the change." - Wikipedia - link as above
Also note that currently: "The U.S. Senate has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). There are 35 seats up in 2020 - including special elections in Arizona and Georgia - of which 23 are held by the GOP. Democrats will need to gain 3 or 4 seats to take control."
2020 Senate Election Interactive Map
Also note that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's seat is being contested in Kentucky - he is said to be leading int he polls by about 12% now, but this is only drawn from a sample of people who answer the phone and respond to the polling questions. Amy McGrath (D) is opposing him in that race and a "surprise" upset cannot be ruled out.
Another interesting article on the S.C. situation:
Four Reasons to Doubt Mitch McConnell’s Power - The Atlantic September 19
- This is very unlikely to be concluded before the election on November 3, due to even normal timeframes.
- If Biden wins by a "fair/wide" margin and/or the Democrats take the Senate, this may not be concluded before the inauguration.
- On the Senate side, in particular, look at the rules on filibusters - currently only 51 are needed to break one and the Republicans have a max. of 53 at this time. However, several (R)s are somewhat maverick and also there are some very close Senate races, with about 6-10 races that may effect the ratio for 2021 onward.
The drama will clearly continue this fall.
Comments are welcome and comparisons with processes from Europe and the rest of the world are also of interest.
The spectacle is not a collection of images, but a social relation among people, mediated by images. - Guy Debord