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katastrofa
Posts: 10077
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: The vaccines

March 17th, 2021, 9:55 am

Third: Forbit men to have sex with women (or persons with a uterus).

I actually don't need the EU to introduce such a change to my life. Thank you for inspiration, Paul!
 
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Paul
Posts: 11263
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: The vaccines

March 17th, 2021, 9:15 pm

"We are in the crisis of the century." 

It's not like her to aim so low.

Image
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: The vaccines

March 17th, 2021, 10:04 pm

Covid: NHS (UK) warns of 'significant reduction' in vaccines

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-56435549

Of course.
I don't care about polemic from you or anyone else but my final AZ comments: they overwsold, underproduced and underdellivered.
"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
David Wheeler

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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Paul
Posts: 11263
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Re: The vaccines

March 17th, 2021, 10:44 pm

Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance.

Progress!!
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 10077
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: The vaccines

March 19th, 2021, 12:21 am

"I don't care about polemic from you or anyone else but my final AZ comments: they overwsold, underproduced and underdellivered."

The govs should have assumed the obvious risk that the supply chain will break under the enormous pressure - not that much could have been done about it. Still, AstraZeneca is just a scapegoat.

I don't know what the current epidemiological statistics are (though I know how the general situation will affect the sales of pastries!), but it looks like the vaccines are safe (for now). Not sure how effective they are though - have you seen any research in it?, and how the virus will mutate against them - in the field... or in the Wuhan lab ;-)
 
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Alan
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Re: The vaccines

March 26th, 2021, 5:54 pm

I believe Orange County, Ca (where I live) and California in general is close to herd immunity.  
You can see the stats for yourself. More rationale
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 10077
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: The vaccines

March 26th, 2021, 6:19 pm

Do you know what part of the population was vaccined, Alan? The 60% is allegedly required to achieve herd immunity (if I remember rightly, but correct me if I'm wrong). That's taken from SIR model, afaik, so much exaggerated because of the homogeneity feature (perfect mixing in the population).

BTW, I grew sceptical about AZ - cheap to produce and store sounds to too beautiful to be true. Likely they cut corners.
 
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Alan
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Re: The vaccines

March 26th, 2021, 6:21 pm

From the wsj link:
Anthony Fauci has been saying that the country needs to vaccinate 70% to 85% of the population to reach herd immunity from Covid-19. But he inexplicably ignores natural immunity. If you account for previous infections, herd immunity is likely close at hand.

Data from the California Department of Public Health, released earlier this month, show that while only 8.7% of the state’s population has ever tested positive for Covid-19, at least 38.5% of the population has antibodies against the novel coronavirus. Those numbers are from Jan. 30 to Feb. 20. Adjusting for cases between now and then, and accounting for the amount of time it takes for the body to make antibodies, we can estimate that as many as half of Californians have natural immunity today.

The same report found that 45% of people in Los Angeles had Covid-19 antibodies. Again, the number can only be higher today. Between “half and two-thirds of our population has antibodies in it now,” due to Covid exposure or vaccination, Mayor Eric Garcetti said Sunday on “Face the Nation.” That would explain why cases in Los Angeles are down 95% in the past 11 weeks and the positivity rate among those tested is now 1.7%.

Undercounting or removing the many Americans with natural immunity from any tally of herd immunity is a scientific error of omission. When people wonder why President Biden talks about limiting Fourth of July gatherings, it’s because his most prominent medical adviser has dismissed the contribution of natural immunity, artificially extending the timeline.


Many physicians believe that vaccinated immunity will prove more durable than natural immunity. I agree, and I think everyone should get vaccinated. But after a year of millions of Covid-19 cases in the U.S., it’s clear that reinfections are rare. Natural immunity is real and shouldn’t be ignored.

...
Dr. Fauci’s vaccination-only path to herd immunity has significantly influenced the national conversation. KNBC-TV in Los Angeles has a county-by-county vaccine tracker showing a bar graph of the percentage of Californians vaccinated, with the zone 70% to 85% labeled “herd immunity.” Currently, it’s at 26%. The false construct does create a greater urgency for everyone to get vaccinated. But it also creates false justification for continued excessive restrictions on freedom. And it raises the possibility that authorities are misallocating the limited vaccine supply by failing to direct it toward people without natural antibodies.
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 10077
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: The vaccines

March 26th, 2021, 6:59 pm

Thanks.

"The false construct does create a greater urgency for everyone to get vaccinated. But it also creates false justification for continued excessive restrictions on freedom. And it raises the possibility that authorities are misallocating the limited vaccine supply by failing to direct it toward people without natural antibodies."

Someone will publicly challenge the heard immunity threshold sooner or later and inspire more distrust. That's why I believe in informing and educating, not fooling and manipulating people. Another long term consequence of the Covid crises will be on people's trust in their governments... Invest in pitchforks.
 
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bearish
Posts: 6436
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: The vaccines

March 28th, 2021, 1:53 am

So, Dr Deborah Birx, who definitely had credibility before joining the Trump circus, made some interesting comments today. Oddly, she confirmed my previous posts around here, to the effect that Trump is personally responsible for the deaths of a few hundred thousand Americans from Covid. That may not be the worst of his offences in the end, but should certainly be enough to warrant a suitable penalty.
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: The vaccines

March 29th, 2021, 8:58 am

BORIS JOHNSON may offer vaccine doses to the Republic of Ireland in what one Cabinet minister claimed would be a "poke in the eye" for the EU's unity.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... -der-leyen

A friend in need is a friend in deed.
"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
David Wheeler

http://www.datasimfinancial.com
http://www.datasim.nl
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 10077
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Alpha Centauri

Re: The vaccines

March 29th, 2021, 3:21 pm

The faulty batch?
 
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Alan
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Re: The vaccines

April 5th, 2021, 4:09 pm

My prediction on vaccine incentives. In the US, by mid-summer, as the vaccine glut develops and vaccination rates plateau around 70%, the Biden administration will try paying hold-outs to get vaccinated. The first offer will be $100. How high will they go?   :D
 
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bearish
Posts: 6436
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: The vaccines

April 5th, 2021, 4:14 pm

Meh. The money would be better spent on developing a vaccine passport.
 
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Alan
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Re: The vaccines

April 5th, 2021, 4:21 pm

I'm not saying it's a good idea -- just that they'll try it.