So, as expected, the recall will make it to the ballot.
Very favorable to the governor is the covid situation in California: excellent stats
and the state will open up "fully" on June 15.
There are infrastructure issues that could still bring him down (the utilities turn off people's electricity for fire risk), and legacy covid response issues such as the unnecessary loss of many small businesses due to excessive lock-downs. But, my guess at this point in time is that he will survive the recall.