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Paul
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 1:42 am

I managed about two minutes of the first Paul Harrell video. Then got distracted by his ".357 Magnum vs. .44 Magnum." Had to skip forward on that one. Got to the bit about shooting through lung tissue and gave up.
 
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bearish
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 1:45 am

Right. 1/6 was a lot more like 12/7 than 9/11.
 
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Paul
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 1:50 am

I’d like to see a well-regulated militia made up of Democrats!
It didn't exactly involve Democrats, but you can look to the Mulford Act and the history behind it to see how deeply the Trumpublican Party -- including St. Ronald Reagan (pbuh) -- believes in the things it so deeply believes in.
You're saying that people holding guns quite like them but anyone at the pointy end doesn't. I think you've found Axiom 1 in any logical debate on gun control. Onto Axiom 2...
 
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Paul
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 1:51 am

Right. 1/6 was a lot more like 12/7 than 9/11.
11/5
 
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Paul
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 1:58 am

Chest-thumping gorillas doing obnoxious in-your-face open carry give a bad name to the rest of the carrying community.
They're not the ones to worry about. If you meet an angry Italian then you know it's all bark and no bite. But a whispering Don Corleone...
 
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bearish
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 2:57 am

Right. 1/6 was a lot more like 12/7 than 9/11.
11/5
Is that meant to be November 5, May 11, or 2.2?
 
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kc11415
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Joined: March 16th, 2003, 10:02 pm
Location: Indiana, USA

Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 4:54 am

I managed about two minutes of the first Paul Harrell video. Then got distracted by his ".357 Magnum vs. .44 Magnum." Had to skip forward on that one. Got to the bit about shooting through lung tissue and gave up.
I am sorry I neglected to preface that with: "For those in the US."  As you know, I'm not OP for this US Civil War thread.  People throw around such terms as academic abstractions. "Civil" War may be the most ironic oxymoron.  There ain't nothing civil about it.   What is more disturbing:
* discussion of different calibers causing differing degrees of bodily injury ?
* discussion of civil war as only an academic abstraction ?

Civil war is not an academic abstraction for me.  It is a contingency for which I have partially hedged my life.  Anyone thinking they can fully & adequately prepare is just kidding themselves.  There is nobody who will be better off if US Civil War actually happens, not even Russia or China.  If there is a civil war, there's a chance more people will die from disease than from direct violence.  Dysentery is not a valorous death.

I left NYC 6 weeks after 2016 elections.  NYC events of the past 2 years encouraged voters to elect a former police captain as mayor of NYC.  This would have been unthinkable previously.

I live about one hour from Louisville, Kentucky where we had hundreds of people on both sides carrying weapons openly during protests after https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Breonna_Taylor  Some people got shot & killed.  

So, these are not academic abstractions for me.
All standard disclaimers apply, and then some.
 
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kc11415
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 5:03 am

Chest-thumping gorillas doing obnoxious in-your-face open carry give a bad name to the rest of the carrying community.
They're not the ones to worry about. If you meet an angry Italian then you know it's all bark and no bite. But a whispering Don Corleone...
Roughly a dozen people open carried AR-15's into the Michigan state legislature to protest mask mandates.  Some of them were later caught as part of a plot to kidnap the governor of the state of Michigan.  That's who I was thinking of as chest-thumping gorillas.
All standard disclaimers apply, and then some.
 
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kc11415
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 11:12 am

Another relevant line of separation is geographic: Trump country is a nearly contiguous mass of land in the South and Midwest,
Firstly: A list of charged Jan.6 rioters by State: https://seditiontracker.com/suspects/by_state
What states are missing from that list: Nebraska, North Dakota, Wyoming.  States included on that list: California, New York, Illinois

Secondly: most electoral results maps are drawn to scale proportional to geographical land area. This gives a distorted perception of how much of each state voted for Trump.  Ironically, in 2020 some urban islands saw Trump gain a few percentage points (while still not winning those), and multiple districts that went strongly for Trump in 2016, were more mildly supportive of him in 2020.  See the following maps:
Each county's colored area proportional to population:
https://engaging-data.com/county-electoral-map-land-vs-population/
One dot on the map for each vote:
https://carto.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=8732c91ba7a14d818cd26b776250d2c3
All standard disclaimers apply, and then some.
 
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Marsden
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 2:47 pm

I read somewhere that 95% of cases of DGU (Defensive Gun Use) do not actually involve discharging the weapon.
I think that statistic comes from a very problematic study.

Basically, the gun lobby likes to counter the reality of the many firearm deaths in America with claims that guns help prevent crimes ... but official statistics never bore that out. So they promoted the idea that most instances of defensive gun use are not reported, and Gary Kleck picked up the ball for them and ran with it.

Now, there are problems with official statistics, but rather than trying to address them, Kleck used existing statistics derived elsewhere to extrapolate to national defensive gun use estimates.

And I think anyone on this forum should be savvy enough with numbers to recognize that his methods were garbage.

If you step back and ask yourself, "Recognizing that many instances of defensive gun use are not reported in official statistics, what is the best way to get a good estimate of them?" I think you end up with something very much like what was done in two Harvard surveys.

Their conclusion: "Guns are used to threaten and intimidate far more often than they are used in self defense. Most self reported self defense gun uses may well be illegal and against the interests of society."

I have a friend who happens to be a gun nut who, on an unrelated topic, says that he'd be all for nudism if he got to choose who would partake of it. I tell him that that's my attitude toward gun ownership.
 
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kc11415
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 4:04 pm

I read somewhere that 95% of cases of DGU (Defensive Gun Use) do not actually involve discharging the weapon.
I think that statistic comes from a very problematic study.
OK, I was unaware of that.  If Kleck was source of what I was thinking, then I agree that "95%" is useless.
What might be somewhat more reliable might be "clearance rates" for serious crimes:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/194213/crime-clearance-rate-by-type-in-the-us/
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/tables/table-25

Homicide has the best clearance rate at 54-61% resulting in at least one arrest. 
That means 39-46% of all murders never result in an arrest, much less conviction.
Clearance rates are worse for other violent crimes, and even more worse for property crimes.

Having been mugged a few times and burgled multiple times, I've learned victims' rights are NOT a top priority for the justice system in either US or UK.
I've only got two cheeks. How many times am I supposed to turn the other cheek?
All standard disclaimers apply, and then some.
 
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katastrofa
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 4:39 pm

Don’t be such a drama queen. We’ll soon have bigger guns put to our heads in Ukraine.
 
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Paul
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 5:25 pm

Right. 1/6 was a lot more like 12/7 than 9/11.
11/5
Is that meant to be November 5, May 11, or 2.2?
Remember, remember, the 5th of November,
Gunpowder, treason and plot.
I see no reason
Why gunpowder treason
Should ever be forgot.

Guy Fawkes, Guy Fawkes, 'twas his intent
To blow up the King and the Parliament
Three score barrels of powder below
Poor old England to overthrow
By God's providence he was catch'd
With a dark lantern and burning match

Holler boys, holler boys, let the bells ring
Holler boys, holler boys
God save the King!
 
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kc11415
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 5:43 pm

All standard disclaimers apply, and then some.
 
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Marsden
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 8:10 pm

I've only got two cheeks. How many times am I supposed to turn the other cheek?
Um, you've got four cheeks.

Just sayin'.

;-)