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bearish
Posts: 5188
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 8:23 pm


11/5
Is that meant to be November 5, May 11, or 2.2?
Remember, remember, the 5th of November,
Gunpowder, treason and plot.
I see no reason
Why gunpowder treason
Should ever be forgot.

Guy Fawkes, Guy Fawkes, 'twas his intent
To blow up the King and the Parliament
Three score barrels of powder below
Poor old England to overthrow
By God's providence he was catch'd
With a dark lantern and burning match

Holler boys, holler boys, let the bells ring
Holler boys, holler boys
God save the King!
OK - I should have got that cultural reference, but I agree. Just because you fail at violently overthrowing the government doesn’t mean it wasn’t a bad thing to try in the first place.
 
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kc11415
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Location: Indiana, USA

Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 13th, 2021, 8:37 pm

I've only got two cheeks. How many times am I supposed to turn the other cheek?
Um, you've got four cheeks.

Just sayin'.

;-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWBUl7oT9sA
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katastrofa
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 14th, 2021, 12:24 am

Someone’s desperate for spanking.

Somethings for you, kc11415: https://www.thetrace.org/
 
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kc11415
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 14th, 2021, 2:39 am

So... if something is associated with excessive deaths, then we should ban it?
Image
https://www.vox.com/22675358/us-car-deaths-year-traffic-covid-pandemic
"America’s car crash epidemic
Driving kills as many Americans each year as guns do. Experts say that’s preventable."
By Marina Bolotnikova Sep 19, 2021, 9:00am EDT
"Driving is the most dangerous thing most Americans do every day. Virtually every American knows someone who’s been injured in a car crash, and each year cars kill about as many people as guns and severely injure millions. "
[...]
"The tragedy of high road death rates isn’t uniquely American. Worldwide, the car death rate is even higher than in the US, and it’s especially bad in the Global South. Cars kill 1.3 million people worldwide every year, more than murders and suicides combined, and most victims are pedestrians, bikers, and motorcyclists — not car passengers, who tend to be wealthier."
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Paul
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 14th, 2021, 2:54 am

My understanding is that people are trying to make cars safer but guns more dangerous. You can see from the chart that car manufacturers are doing a good job. Guns not so much. All that testosterone has to cloud thinking somewhat.
 
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kc11415
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Location: Indiana, USA

Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 14th, 2021, 3:33 am

My personal opinion is that testosterone is excessively present in many (not all) parts of the gun community, and is generally unhelpful.
I am not so impressed by some states choosing "constitutional carry" (carry without any license.)
I would prefer to see mandatory training/testing/licensing for carry.
Regardless of what I might prefer, I must deal with the facts on the ground as they are.

I think it would beneficial for most houses in the USA to have at least 1 single-shot break-action shotgun.
There's nothing requiring anyone to load it with fully lethal loads.
A shotgun can be loaded with bean-bag rounds or other less lethal rounds.
However, in many jurisdictions civilians can only use such rounds under the same conditions that allow for use of lethal force.
(I am NOT a lawyer, so please seek competent legal advice.)
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bearish
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 14th, 2021, 3:49 am

Someone’s desperate for spanking.

Somethings for you, kc11415: https://www.thetrace.org/
Right - I think there is something there. If Texas can get away with setting aside any hint of federal law, then maybe the rest of us can, too. And certainly banning guns would be a good start. Of course, as they like to say, if you outlaw guns only outlaws will have guns. But that is just pretty much status quo, and then there will be a law to hold against them.
 
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Paul
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 14th, 2021, 3:54 am

I think it would beneficial for most houses in the USA to have at least 1 single-shot break-action shotgun.
I only have an extremely powerful crossbow. Sadly it is so powerful I cannot load it. It was given to me by the Collector, who could load it with his little finger. He gave it to me when returning to Norway, apparently airlines and customs look askance at lethal medieval weapons.
 
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bearish
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 14th, 2021, 4:29 am

This cries out for a quote from “The long dark tea time of the soul”. Involving a muscular blond Norwegian god trying to catch a flight home from Heathrow. Perhaps with a hammer, but definitely void of a crossbow.
 
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Collector
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 14th, 2021, 9:04 am

"Sadly it is so powerful I cannot load it."  use your feets, one day u will need it! 
 
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katastrofa
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 14th, 2021, 9:12 am

My understanding is that people are trying to make cars safer but guns more dangerous. You can see from the chart that car manufacturers are doing a good job. Guns not so much. All that testosterone has to cloud thinking somewhat.
The guns curve stability (controlling for population growth) may actually give away the perfectly optimised utility function of the gun indstry (maximisation vs stabilisation of profits): if they make the guns too lethal, there will soon be no opportunity left to use them - business closed! That's not the equilibrium they want to achieve (think Lotka-Volterra model).
 
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katastrofa
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 14th, 2021, 9:33 am

Testosterone, last time I read (and it wasn't the outdated theory correlation=causation theory of testosterone causing aggression), is a I'll-do-what-it-takes-to-maintain-my-social-status hormone. One could argue that it's the environment that inspires the gun violence, not the other way around. Humiliate and silence Trump supporters - that's how they will protest. Ban the guns, they will go for knives, and so on... Just my theory.
 
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Marsden
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 14th, 2021, 1:03 pm

So... if something is associated with excessive deaths, then we should ban it?
Image

What's an "excessive death?"

Surely you need to do a cost-benefit analysis of both firearms and automobiles before you get your knickers in a wad over how many more people die from automobile accidents than from firearms; people die from allergic reactions to antibiotics (... and vaccines), but that's hardly all we need to know in order to decide to ban antibiotics.

I hope you realize you have been posting unadulterated gun lobby propaganda, kc, and that it is meant to convince rather than to inform. If you choose to eat bullshit yourself, that's a personal choice; but when you start serving it to others, it begins to be something of a public health issue.

And, by the way, anyone who feels the need to have something on hand for personal protection, probably two better choices than a loaded firearm are (a) an unloaded firearm and (b) a big can of bear spray.

An unloaded firearm looks the same as a loaded firearm, and it doesn't pose the threat of an accidental death or injury. And I've heard that 95% of defensive gun uses do not involve firing the weapon ...

And bear spray has very good stopping power -- we all know how big brown bears can get, don't we? -- with not very much risk of death or permanent injury.

Because accidental deaths from firearms are about as big a problem as firearm homicides. People shoot and kill their neighbors' drunk son when he tries to get through the wrong front door, or -- roused from a deep sleep by some noise -- they accidentally discharge the loaded firearm they keep on their nightstand and kill the person sleeping next to them.

And loaded firearms with kids in the house are their own nightmare.

So keep something non-lethal.

It's a lot easier to continue to live next door to people whose son you bear sprayed than next door to people whose son you killed.
 
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kc11415
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 14th, 2021, 7:16 pm

sigh... I guess it's too late for me to avoid violating TL;DR

The OP for this thread started with odds of Civil War NOT gun safety or violence.  If community consensus is I (more than others) caused this threadjack, then let me know.  Regardless, I'll back off on this theme.

I hedged my position for multiple contingencies, not just Civil War.  Weapons & ammo are NOT the biggest share of my hedge.  I've also discussed some of the learning curve (& mistakes) I experienced in food supply chain logistics alternatives.  Some decided to focus exclusively on my comments about guns and I made the mistake of responding.

To be clear, I consider it generally unacceptable and immoral for me or anyone to threaten or use violence or lethal force against someone who insults me or hurts my feelings, or for a litany of many other reasons.  If I've given contrary impression then PM me to suggest which language I need to improve.

Marsden, Re: spanking...  Uhm... not really my thing.  What you do in private is your business; just leave me out of it :-)

Calling me a "gun lobby" shill is ad hominem.  I've not paid dues or donations to any gun rights organizations since a quarter century ago.  I've also not signed up for any 2nd Ammendment forums because I find gun-lobby fear-mongering about as tiresome as anti-gun fear-mongering.
I suspect I'm more representative of most gun owners than the noisy folks who make the news.  The noisy folks think I'm a commie bastard for being in favor of mandatory training & licensing and other reasons left unsaid.

Back to the OP:
Civil War is a contingency with probability greater than fat tail risk.  I suspect I've done quite a bit more prep for this contingency than armchair quarterbacks.

The status quo can NOT be maintained indefinitely.  The natives are restless. There were 'majorities' who voted in 2016 in US & UK to shake up the status quo.  I suspect many were voting against the status quo more than they were voting for something.

My avocational interest in Ag supply chain logistics evolved out of my vocational interests in market data feeds sources, including fundamental analysis of commodities supply chains.

Agricultural supply chains have become increasingly dysfunctional in recent decades.  It is NOT sustainable, regardless of civil war.

In NYC during 9/11, 2003 northeast blackout, 2008 crash, 2012 Hurricane Sandy; I kept seeing fragile & non-resilient supply chains.

At a minimum I would encourage everyone wholly dependent upon mass market food supply chains to start to hedge by participating in something like CSA (Community Supported Agriculture).  Alternatively, get together with friends to form a partnership to buy one animal from a farmer then ship it to a small custom butcher and divide it up amongst yourselves.  Taking some control over your food supply chain would be a good hedge, but with many other fringe benefits.

These are hedges against more than just civil unrest.  These are hedges against supply chain dysfunction.

Has anyone seen any supply chain dysfunction lately?

P.S. As for me handling something dangerous or high risk, other venues (commercial & governmental) have been more apropos to evaluate my suitability for that.  If you wish to sit in judgement of my suitability, then go get a job at a 3-letter agency.  Armchair quarterbacks don't call plays out on this field.
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kc11415
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 14th, 2021, 10:48 pm

Right. 1/6 was a lot more like 12/7 than 9/11.
11/5
V for Vendetta would be such an apropos movie to watch this winter, for so many reasons.
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