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kc11415
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 16th, 2021, 2:25 am

Dalio said Democracy might not be around rather than saying Democrats might be around.  That difference is not subtle.

His inflationary discussion sounds plausible.... However, this seques into "talking his book" (and I mean his portfolio, not his latest publication)
He's trying to say the safest protection in an inflationary regime is to avoid having money in cash.
Have it in inflation hedges of which he says stocks & index funds are good examples.
This is hard to reconcile with his laying odds of civil war.
If Civil War resulted in severe market downturn then Dalio might struggle to hedge his risk.

University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation is certainly up, but not yet at historic levels, and has settled into a new range for now.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MICH

Multiple Inflation-Indexed Treasuries yields have gone way down (some negative). So, bond investors want BOTH safe haven and an inflation hedge.
Reminder: bond yields move the inverse direction of prices.
Treasury Inflation-Indexed Securities https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/82
30-Year 3-5/8% Treasury Inflation-Indexed Bond, Due 4/15/2028 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTP30A28
30-Year 0-3/4% Treasury Inflation-Indexed Bond, Due 2/15/2042 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTP30F42
20-Year 2-1/2% Treasury Inflation-Indexed Bond, Due 1/15/2029 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTP20J29
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kc11415
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 16th, 2021, 10:12 am

Something I saw yesterday that might be a caveat for Dalio's suggestion of index funds as an inflation hedge:
Image
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bearish
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 16th, 2021, 2:28 pm

Dalio said Democracy might not be around rather than saying Democrats might be around.  That difference is not subtle.
Well, conceptually the two statements are of course totally different (and it was kind of naughty of Collector to tweak it). In practice, though, were Republicans to take over again, Democracy would be history, and we’d be left with a hereditary quasi-religious empire of Trump.
 
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katastrofa
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 17th, 2021, 8:21 am

I might be young and naive, but it’s not very revealing to predict the order of things to happen (based on the past and common sense). The question is when.

Btw, I’ve heard you’re a spanking enthusias, kc1415! Something you’ll like
 
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Alan
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

December 18th, 2021, 3:14 pm

Since the putative Civil War, to a 0th approximation, will be men vs. women, it can be resolved by intergender wrestling:
 
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Collector
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Re: 30% chance of US Civil War in the next 10 years

November 1st, 2022, 8:43 pm

Screenshot 2022-11-01 at 21.42.37.png
"To be clear, when I say that I believe we are on the brink of civil and/or international war, I am not saying that we will necessarily go into them or that, if we do, it will happen very soon."  from his page just now. 

"The bad things are that a) conditions are deteriorating even faster than I expected"