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Alan
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Finally, a hurricane ...

September 5th, 2022, 2:47 pm

Presumably, these predictions come from the same groups that bring us "climate science":

Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 -- Nov. 30.
On April 7, CSU issued their first extended range seasonal forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting well above-average activity, with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 160 units. 
On June 2, CSU updated their extended range seasonal forecast, increasing the amount of tropical cyclones to 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an overall ACE index of 180 units. This was done after later analysis of lower chances of an El Niño during the season, as well as a warmer than average tropical Atlantic.[29] On June 20, 2022, University of Arizona (UA) updated its seasonal prediction, which is very similar to its April prediction, with 15 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 131 units.[21] On July 5, TSR released their third forecast for the season, slightly increasing their numbers to 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. This prediction was largely based on the persistence of the weak La Niña into the third quarter of the year.[22] On July 7, CSU did not make changes to their updated prediction of 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.[23] UKMO's updated forecast on August 2 called for 16 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.[24] Two days later, NOAA and CSU each revised their activity outlook slightly downward, though both still predicted that the season would end up being busier than the 30-year average.
source

Finally, as of Sept. 5, there has been one named hurricane. Danielle.
 
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bearish
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Re: Finally, a hurricane ...

September 5th, 2022, 6:20 pm

It took me a moment to digest the location of this post, but I do think it is appropriate, since denouncing climate science is a very GOP/Trumpian (sorry, that’s redundant) position.
 
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Alan
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Re: Finally, a hurricane ...

September 5th, 2022, 7:19 pm

Of course it's in the right place. BTW, speaking of the poor predictive quality of the state-of-the-art climate models, my classmate Steve Koonin has a very interesting 2021 book: Unsettled. See in particular Ch. 4, "Many Muddled Models".

As a side note, Koonin was Under Secretary for Science under the Obama admin, among other credentials.