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Cuchulainn
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 18th, 2018, 12:07 am

He looks old, and he's three years younger than me. I doubt if he does yoga, like I do..
 
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Paul
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 18th, 2018, 8:26 am

Two observations:

1. It seems to me that the probabilities of deal, no deal, no Brexit and second referendum have all gone up. How is that possible? Can we have probabilities adding up to more that one please?!!

2. One thing that you don't hear discussed much in the media, but definitely do among the public, is the inevitability of the EU's collapse. So an important question about May's deal is "Does it ring fence the UK when the EU collapses?" 
 
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ppauper
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 18th, 2018, 8:50 am

Two observations:

1. It seems to me that the probabilities of deal, no deal, no Brexit and second referendum have all gone up. How is that possible? Can we have probabilities adding up to more that one please?!!

2. One thing that you don't hear discussed much in the media, but definitely do among the public, is the inevitability of the EU's collapse. So an important question about May's deal is "Does it ring fence the UK when the EU collapses?" 
There's obviously an additional scenario with a large negative probability which balances things out.
I don't understand this modern obsession with things adding up to 100%. I remember in the old days, I once asked a group of new employees whether they intended to give 110%. They all put their hands up, so we fired them all because we expect all our employees to give at least 120%.
 
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ISayMoo
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 18th, 2018, 5:49 pm

2. One thing that you don't hear discussed much in the media, but definitely do among the public, is the inevitability of the EU's collapse. So an important question about May's deal is "Does it ring fence the UK when the EU collapses?" 
If the EU genuinely collapses, then the deals we made with them are null and void, and we trade with every former EU member on default (WTO) terms.
 
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Paul
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 18th, 2018, 5:55 pm

Yes, and presumably during the collapse we are ringfenced too(?).
 
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ISayMoo
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 18th, 2018, 6:26 pm

I think in practice it would be quite a stressful period anyway, ringfencing or not. Let's hope that the EU doesn't collapse, we need it to stop France going to war with Germany AGAIN.

May's deal doesn't fix the long-term relationship with the EU, it's mostly about the transition period. EU won't collapse during the 2-5 years it will take us to negotiate the long-term relationship.
 
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Paul
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 18th, 2018, 7:57 pm

On eBay: one WWII rifle, French, never fired, dropped once.

You can’t beat a classic!
 
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ISayMoo
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 18th, 2018, 8:08 pm

Funny that the British are so fond of making such jokes, given that the largest WWII British military operation was an evacuation ;-)
 
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bearish
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 18th, 2018, 8:55 pm

One can spin up any number of hypothetical scenarios along the lines of a collapsing EU. It seems pretty safe to assume that treaties will remain binding even if Greece drops out, and perhaps even Italy. But what is owed to an EU consisting of just Poland and Hungary? In the general spirit of Wonko the Sane, they may at some point decide to expel the other countries.
 
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Paul
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 18th, 2018, 9:45 pm

Funny that the British are so fond of making such jokes, given that the largest WWII British military operation was an evacuation ;-)
As evacuations go you have to admit that it was pretty inspirational! Can you imagine if something like was needed these day? The Guardian readers in government would complain about health and safety, say that we couldn’t guarantee gender balance, and that there wouldn’t be the right facilities for the gender fluid.
 
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Paul
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 18th, 2018, 9:47 pm

One can spin up any number of hypothetical scenarios along the lines of a collapsing EU. It seems pretty safe to assume that treaties will remain binding even if Greece drops out, and perhaps even Italy. But what is owed to an EU consisting of just Poland and Hungary? In the general spirit of Wonko the Sane, they may at some point decide to expel the other countries.
And which would be the sole European country to actually abide by any treaties?! The sUcKers.
 
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katastrofa
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 19th, 2018, 12:47 pm

 
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ISayMoo
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 19th, 2018, 1:08 pm

Filed under "we can't leave the EU because it protects our environment".
 
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Cuchulainn
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 19th, 2018, 1:27 pm

Funny that the British are so fond of making such jokes, given that the largest WWII British military operation was an evacuation ;-)
But not when compared to  Вели́кая Оте́чественная война́

And not forgetting Arnhem (Monty bad, Patton good).
 
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katastrofa
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Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

November 19th, 2018, 1:48 pm

My favourite war in the history: Germans and Russians killing each other.
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