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Cuchulainn
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UK and the EU: In or out?

February 24th, 2016, 4:13 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: PaulQuoteOriginally posted by: katastrofa...which is probably the true reason why you like her...I suspect it's just me being a bit of a contrarian. I was in academia in the 'eighties and all my colleagues hated her. I noticed that a) I worked harder than any of them and b) I didn't think very highly of them. So it was natural for me to appreciate the meritocratic philosophy.PFair point.One thing I noticed that quite a few of our own Oxbridge/MIT/Princeton etc. trained profs wrote quite a few books and articles for about 6 years after PhD and then it just stopped. Is it a tenure thing or is it academic politics that takes precedence?
Last edited by Cuchulainn on February 23rd, 2016, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Paul
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UK and the EU: In or out?

February 25th, 2016, 7:59 am

It was very easy to tell with people in their twenties whether they wanted to be successful as mathematicians or as politicians. Even if they were decent mathematicians some just couldn't resist the pull of "power." They might have a decent IQ but also a very high "BNQ" ("Brown Nose Quotient.")I personally just wanted the cash!P
 
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ppauper
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UK and the EU: In or out?

February 27th, 2016, 10:15 am

girl wants to leave so UK can have more indian physiciansQuote"I would get out of the EU so we could have a fair points-based system so we don't favour people from the EU over people (outside) of the EU."We can have someone unskilled within Europe coming in without any questions, but a really talented doctor from India has to go through an intensive process."It doesn't make sense."lmaoI think you should leave, but do you really want more physicians from 3rd world countries?Does this girl really think a medical degree from India is equivalent to one from say the US or Japan?
 
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ppauper
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 12th, 2016, 10:28 pm

 
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ppauper
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 15th, 2016, 9:50 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperWhite House jabs London mayor over Brexit outburst
 
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Paul
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 15th, 2016, 2:01 pm

Well, he would, wouldn't he? TTIPP
 
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katastrofa
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 15th, 2016, 2:09 pm

Aren't all European governments (i.e., corpos lobbying them) pro-TTIP anyway? (But, yeah, Obama's mistake -- telling the British what they ought to do.)
 
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ppauper
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 15th, 2016, 2:27 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: PaulWell, he would, wouldn't he? TTIPPindeed, obama is a globalist and a cheerleader for the new world order
 
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Traden4Alpha
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 15th, 2016, 3:06 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: PaulWell, he would, wouldn't he? TTIPPindeed, obama is a globalist and a cheerleader for the new world orderGiven the structure and hiring practices of the Trump organization, it seems he's a globalist, cheerleader, and direct financial beneficiary of the new world order.Trump lies so frequently and with such abandon that it's hard to believe that what he claims he'll do in office bears any resemblance to what he actually does in office.
 
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Cuchulainn
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 15th, 2016, 3:26 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: PaulWell, he would, wouldn't he? TTIPPindeed, obama is a globalist and a cheerleader for the new world orderGiven the structure and hiring practices of the Trump organization, it seems he's a globalist, cheerleader, and direct financial beneficiary of the new world order.Trump lies so frequently and with such abandon that it's hard to believe that what he claims he'll do in office bears any resemblance to what he actually does in office.I know! GOLF
"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
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Paul
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 15th, 2016, 3:43 pm

I've been trying to model the behaviour of the polls. It's tricky because there's not much of a pattern. I started with the obvious ODE/chemical reaction thing, people going from one state to another in Remain/Leave/Don't Know. In a discrete-time setting that's just transition matrices again. Unlike the General Election it's easier because there isn't the nonlinearity caused by votes being lumped by seats, it's a straight winner takes all. But that makes it harder because then I have no edge over anyone else trying to model this!I'm exploring the idea of there being Pro EU News and Anti EU News, and those explaining changes in the polling. P
 
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ppauper
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 15th, 2016, 4:14 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: ppauperQuoteOriginally posted by: PaulWell, he would, wouldn't he? TTIPPindeed, obama is a globalist and a cheerleader for the new world orderGiven the structure and hiring practices of the Trump organization, it seems he's a globalist, cheerleader, and direct financial beneficiary of the new world order.Trump lies so frequently and with such abandon that it's hard to believe that what he claims he'll do in office bears any resemblance to what he actually does in office.I know! GOLFTrump gegen TTIP und TTP
 
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Traden4Alpha
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 15th, 2016, 6:53 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: PaulI've been trying to model the behaviour of the polls. It's tricky because there's not much of a pattern. I started with the obvious ODE/chemical reaction thing, people going from one state to another in Remain/Leave/Don't Know. In a discrete-time setting that's just transition matrices again. Unlike the General Election it's easier because there isn't the nonlinearity caused by votes being lumped by seats, it's a straight winner takes all. But that makes it harder because then I have no edge over anyone else trying to model this!I'm exploring the idea of there being Pro EU News and Anti EU News, and those explaining changes in the polling. PAre you trying to predict the polls or the voting outcome?Is there really such as thing as "Pro EU News"? Isn't it more accurate to say that a given bit of news is pro-EU for some and anti-EU for others. For example, if a bit of news says Brexit will hurt London cabbies by preventing anti-Uber regulations (I'm making that up!), that's pro-EU for taxi drivers, anti-EU for riders who want to see more competition in taxi-like services, and neutral for people that have no opinion on taxis vs. Uber. There may be some news that is nearly universally on one side (e.g., Brexit will make British men go bald) although even that might engender anti-EU support among chrome-dome-loving women.The other issue is what if pro-EU news has a greater effect on motivating anti-EU voters to turn out to vote than it has the effect of converting undecided voters into the pro-EU camp and getting them to vote. There's modeling the fear versus persuasion effects on all the conditional probabilities of a person's opinion, their willingness to voice that opinion in a poll, and their willingness to take action on voting day.
 
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Cuchulainn
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 15th, 2016, 7:05 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: PaulI've been trying to model the behaviour of the polls. It's tricky because there's not much of a pattern. I started with the obvious ODE/chemical reaction thing, people going from one state to another in Remain/Leave/Don't Know. In a discrete-time setting that's just transition matrices again. Unlike the General Election it's easier because there isn't the nonlinearity caused by votes being lumped by seats, it's a straight winner takes all. But that makes it harder because then I have no edge over anyone else trying to model this!I'm exploring the idea of there being Pro EU News and Anti EU News, and those explaining changes in the polling. PThinking out loud, the Lotka-esque ODEs do not model payoff, control variables and such (AFAIK) so maybe something on the lines of a non-cooperative differential game ((Lanchester)extinction, war etc.) to find some equilibrium.We have 2 players (ja/nee) but Isuppose a few more major control variables? How many (~5?) Is George Osborne's 'budget' one of them and all kind of news events?If you have a PDE/ODE model I can have a shot at the C++ numerics if you like.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on March 14th, 2016, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Gamal
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 15th, 2016, 7:23 pm

Out. We charge the Brits for being European finance center. If they refuse to pay, Frankfurt will be. Both solutions are good for me.