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Cuchulainn
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 7:11 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: GamalOut. We charge the Brits for being European finance center. If they refuse to pay, Frankfurt will be. Both solutions are good for me.Is it a zero-sum game or is there Nash equilibrium?
"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
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Gamal
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 8:39 am

Neither, just stupidity. Some people think, it is possible to be in Europe but not in EU.
 
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Cuchulainn
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 8:46 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: GamalNeither, just stupidity. Some people think, it is possible to be in Europe but not in EU.I agree. not in, can't win.
"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
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Traden4Alpha
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 2:32 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: GamalNeither, just stupidity. Some people think, it is possible to be in Europe but not in EU.I agree. not in, can't win.Switzerland and Norway seem to do very well being "not in".
 
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Cuchulainn
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 3:50 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: GamalNeither, just stupidity. Some people think, it is possible to be in Europe but not in EU.I agree. not in, can't win.Switzerland and Norway seem to do very well being "not in".How did it get so far?
"Compatibility means deliberately repeating other people's mistakes."
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katastrofa
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 4:27 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: GamalNeither, just stupidity. Some people think, it is possible to be in Europe but not in EU.I agree. not in, can't win.Switzerland and Norway seem to do very well being "not in".Both are quite different from the UK: Switzerland is tiny and has never been in the position or interested in playing any major role in international politics and Norway floats on oil and gas. Apart from that their relations with the EU look pretty much as if they were a part of it...
 
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Gamal
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 4:35 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: GamalNeither, just stupidity. Some people think, it is possible to be in Europe but not in EU.I agree. not in, can't win.Switzerland and Norway seem to do very well being "not in".No, Sir. In order to keep free trade with EU they must reconsile their internal law with EU and contribute to EU budget. They are very much in, only they are not decision makers. Not much difference, smaller countries aren't decision makers either. UK is but doesn't want to be. Interesting.
 
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daveangel
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 4:39 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: GamalQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: GamalNeither, just stupidity. Some people think, it is possible to be in Europe but not in EU.I agree. not in, can't win.Switzerland and Norway seem to do very well being "not in".No, Sir. In order to keep free trade with EU they must reconsile their internal law with EU and contribute to EU budget. They are very much in, only they are not decision makers. Not much difference, smaller countries aren't decision makers either. UK is but doesn't want to be. Interesting.Canada is doing well not being in the EU. As is Japan and China and India and Australia and New Zealand and so on and so forth
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Traden4Alpha
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 4:54 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: GamalQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: GamalNeither, just stupidity. Some people think, it is possible to be in Europe but not in EU.I agree. not in, can't win.Switzerland and Norway seem to do very well being "not in".No, Sir. In order to keep free trade with EU they must reconsile their internal law with EU and contribute to EU budget. They are very much in, only they are not decision makers. Not much difference, smaller countries aren't decision makers either. UK is but doesn't want to be. Interesting.Interesting! What is the per capita payment by Swiss and Norweigan citizens to the EU relative to per capita EU costs for full members?Wouldn't the relationship of these quasi-members and the EU be a bit more a la carte in that they negotiate adoption of EU rules through case-by-case treaties. The quasi-members may not have control over EU policy making, but they do have some control over whether and how it applies to themselves. Full members have some say in policy formation but no say over whether it applies to themselves.In any case, these quasi-members seem to be doing all right.
Last edited by Traden4Alpha on March 15th, 2016, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Gamal
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 4:56 pm

It is possible to survive outside EU. Is it possible to remain European finance center being out? I'm not sure.
 
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Cuchulainn
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 6:21 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: GamalQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: GamalNeither, just stupidity. Some people think, it is possible to be in Europe but not in EU.I agree. not in, can't win.Switzerland and Norway seem to do very well being "not in".No, Sir. In order to keep free trade with EU they must reconsile their internal law with EU and contribute to EU budget. They are very much in, only they are not decision makers. Not much difference, smaller countries aren't decision makers either. UK is but doesn't want to be. Interesting.Interesting! What is the per capita payment by Swiss and Norweigan citizens to the EU relative to per capita EU costs for full members?Wouldn't the relationship of these quasi-members and the EU be a bit more a la carte in that they negotiate adoption of EU rules through case-by-case treaties. The quasi-members may not have control over EU policy making, but they do have some control over whether and how it applies to themselves. Full members have some say in policy formation but no say over whether it applies to themselves.In any case, these quasi-members seem to be doing all right.Depends what you want
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Paul
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 6:54 pm

I'm not very good at history but what I recall from schooldays is that Great Britain did pretty well pre-EU. We don't share the same values as the vast majority of EU citizens.It's entertaining listening to pro-EU people: Labour MP Stephen Kinnock (his inheritance will come from his sponger parents Lord and Lady Kinnock of the EU); Emma Thomson (is she going to lose an Oscar-winning role to an Eastern European? I don't think so.); Lord Rose (ex M&S, calls himself a businessman, moron more like, earns more £££ because he gets cheaper labour); Eddie Izzard (comedian, is a German comedian going to replace him? Sorry, all you hilarious Germans).P
 
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Paul
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 7:05 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4Alpha QuoteOriginally posted by: PaulI've been trying to model the behaviour of the polls. It's tricky because there's not much of a pattern. I started with the obvious ODE/chemical reaction thing, people going from one state to another in Remain/Leave/Don't Know. In a discrete-time setting that's just transition matrices again. Unlike the General Election it's easier because there isn't the nonlinearity caused by votes being lumped by seats, it's a straight winner takes all. But that makes it harder because then I have no edge over anyone else trying to model this!I'm exploring the idea of there being Pro EU News and Anti EU News, and those explaining changes in the polling. PAre you trying to predict the polls or the voting outcome?Is there really such as thing as "Pro EU News"? Isn't it more accurate to say that a given bit of news is pro-EU for some and anti-EU for others. For example, if a bit of news says Brexit will hurt London cabbies by preventing anti-Uber regulations (I'm making that up!), that's pro-EU for taxi drivers, anti-EU for riders who want to see more competition in taxi-like services, and neutral for people that have no opinion on taxis vs. Uber. There may be some news that is nearly universally on one side (e.g., Brexit will make British men go bald) although even that might engender anti-EU support among chrome-dome-loving women.The other issue is what if pro-EU news has a greater effect on motivating anti-EU voters to turn out to vote than it has the effect of converting undecided voters into the pro-EU camp and getting them to vote. There's modeling the fear versus persuasion effects on all the conditional probabilities of a person's opinion, their willingness to voice that opinion in a poll, and their willingness to take action on voting day.Trying to forecast outcome, see below.Most news is pitched 100% one way or the other even though, yes, it could work both ways. Not sure anyone sees it like this. E.g. Eastern European getting a job in the UK: This is usually presented as heroic Eastern European and lazy Brit. A plus point for EU. But of course, European undercuts Brit, Brit loses job, two people need healthcare, housing, schools, etc. So businesses win, Brit ex-employee loses.And then there's who controls vs reads/watches news. BBC pro EU, most papers anti EU. I can't see there suddenly being much in the way of fantastic pro EU in next 100 days: "All EU problems solved, migrants are all sweet and cuddly and like watching reruns of Dad's Army,..." But I can see plenty of scope for anti EU news, mainly migrants, terrorist and Turks.Part of this is predicting who will vote. Historically older people (anti EU) vote more than young (pro EU). Taxpayers vote more than non-taxpayers. I don't know stats for educated (pro EU since unlikely to lose jobs and have homes in Tuscany, not that rich Brits are going to be kicked out of Europe!) voting vs uneducated (anti EU, jobs at risk from Eastern Europeans).P
 
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Gamal
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 7:06 pm

There's one thing more, what Norway and Switzerland would never have and what UK has now and would probably loose - decision making. Who's dreaming of German Europe? QuoteOriginally posted by: PaulI'm not very good at history but what I recall from schooldays is that Great Britain did pretty well pre-EU. PI know, Britannia did rule the waves. Does it any more?
Last edited by Gamal on March 15th, 2016, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Paul
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UK and the EU: In or out?

March 16th, 2016, 7:12 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnDepends what you wantHave you ever met a Guardian reader? Spoiled, entitled, out of touch, and not too worried about spelling or facts.P