SERVING THE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE COMMUNITY

 
User avatar
bearish
Posts: 3589
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 3rd, 2018, 10:48 pm

Smart phone and OCR. Of course, you should probably double check the account number before letting the AI run away with your money.
 
User avatar
ISayMoo
Posts: 941
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 4th, 2018, 9:52 pm

What if I don't know what OCR is? or don't have a smartphone? I just want to pay my council tax bill.
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 56683
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 5th, 2018, 1:01 pm

Britain would now vote 59-41 to stay in the EU - new poll shows
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0 ... nion-poll/
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 68468
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 5th, 2018, 2:43 pm

Cuchulainn wrote:
Britain would now vote 59-41 to stay in the EU - new poll shows
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0 ... nion-poll/

then it's just as well that they held the one poll that counts when they did
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 56683
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am
Location: Amsterdam
Contact:

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 5th, 2018, 3:37 pm

ppauper wrote:
Cuchulainn wrote:
Britain would now vote 59-41 to stay in the EU - new poll shows
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0 ... nion-poll/

then it's just as well that they held the one poll that counts when they did

You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.

And that's the way it is.
 
User avatar
Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 8530
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 5th, 2018, 4:42 pm

If there were to be a second referendum then the Leavers would (let’s just say “should”) destroy the Remoaners in the run-up debates. Leavers have all the Remoaner lies, the Remoaner attempts to derail negotiations, etc. to call on now. Eg there is no single word that has come out of Nick Clegg’s mouth that has turned out to be true. (“There will be no EU army”!)
 
User avatar
ISayMoo
Posts: 941
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 5th, 2018, 9:04 pm

Cuchulainn wrote:
Britain would now vote 59-41 to stay in the EU - new poll shows
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0 ... nion-poll/

However, the poll’s author caveated the findings by saying the interview panel was skewed towards remain and some of those who changed their minds did not take part in the original Brexitreferendum. 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 24431.html
 
User avatar
ISayMoo
Posts: 941
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 5th, 2018, 9:07 pm

Paul wrote:
If there were to be a second referendum then the Leavers would (let’s just say “should”) destroy the Remoaners in the run-up debates. Leavers have all the Remoaner lies, the Remoaner attempts to derail negotiations, etc. to call on now. Eg there is no single word that has come out of Nick Clegg’s mouth that has turned out to be true. (“There will be no EU army”!)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... eparations
Lord King is being charitable so he says just "incompetence". I think a better word is "sabotage".
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 68468
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 5th, 2018, 9:55 pm

this seems to be the report
it doesn't seem to be a "scientific poll."
I always look for the margin of error, and there doesn't seem to be one.


see table 10 for the actual results

massive overweighting of people who voted remain in the original poll, presumably deliberate to feed the narrative that the UK has changed its mind
 
User avatar
ISayMoo
Posts: 941
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 6th, 2018, 7:34 am

It's more subtle than that: "the proportion saying they voted Remain two years ago has gradually been creeping up in our surveys" (emphasis mine). I think the point is that people are lying about how they voted 2 years ago, because they sense that voting Remain is the socially acceptable thing to do. And if they're lying about that, they're probably lying about their current voting intentions as well...
 
User avatar
ppauper
Posts: 68468
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 6th, 2018, 8:17 am

if you're a remainer, you want another poll, and you think that the way to get that is to create the impression that people who voted leave are changing their minds en masse.
So you tell a pollster that you voted leave in the referendum but would vote remain now
 
User avatar
Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 8530
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 6th, 2018, 8:32 am

Wouldn’t Brexiteers do the reverse then? I shall, if asked. Thanks for the idea!
 
User avatar
ISayMoo
Posts: 941
Joined: September 30th, 2015, 8:30 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 6th, 2018, 9:48 am

ppauper wrote:
if you're a remainer, you want another poll, and you think that the way to get that is to create the impression that people who voted leave are changing their minds en masse.
So you tell a pollster that you voted leave in the referendum but would vote remain now

I think the stronger factor is that Leave voters are afraid to admit their views because of intimidation by angry Remainers.
If you work in a big London company, you're better off not telling people you support Brexit.
 
User avatar
rmax
Posts: 5964
Joined: December 8th, 2005, 9:31 am

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 6th, 2018, 3:44 pm

As a strong remainer, we should just get the hell out of EU now. We have voted and lets just godamned get on with it. 

I don't like the outcome of the vote, but some halfway house is the worst of all possible worlds. I honestly do not think that there should be another vote as if it does go the other way (which I am pretty sure it would, once most of the electorate found Europe on the map and collectively woke up to the huge stupidity of it) it would cause a fundamental split in the population which would be extremely destabilizing.
 
User avatar
Paul
Topic Author
Posts: 8530
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: UK and the EU: In or out?

September 6th, 2018, 3:58 pm

rmax wrote:
... it would cause a fundamental split in the population which would be extremely destabilizing.

It already has. Some once good friends no longer speak to me because they are Remainers. You are the only Remainer who still does! If this counts as speaking.
ABOUT WILMOTT

PW by JB

Wilmott.com has been "Serving the Quantitative Finance Community" since 2001. Continued...


JOBS BOARD

JOBS BOARD

Looking for a quant job, risk, algo trading,...? Browse jobs here...