January 19th, 2007, 9:50 pm
was putting up my old paper for downloade on bottom of my webpage just nowOpportunities and Perils in Using Option SensitivitiesPlease have in mind this was basically one of my very first papers, before I knew much about options. I know (and even knew then) that correlations between volatilities are highly unstable. But not weighting and then indirectly assuming correlation 1 is even worse. If you think you don't assume, you are making hidden assumptions!Also what you should look at for this is implied vols not so much historical, but at that time (in between 2 jobs) I only had historical. This is a big topic I could write a whole book on...will possibly write an article on it soon.It is certainly better to use some type of weighing than not, short term implied voles are for certain much more volatile than long term.Looking at historical as I did, you have problem with number of sample points, short term also get more volatile simply because less sample size etc. but this is not whole story, big events do not happen every day, and after a big event or 2 (days) one can expect vol to come down over time, strong "mean reverting" after vol shocks, which is part of explenation why even short term implied more volatile than long term. But there is much more to it, most non-traders got the whole volatility concept wrong....I will come back to this later.Main point from this paper is simply short term vol (and should have looked at implied) are much more volatile than long term.The 3D portfolio charts I was running in Wingz back then (early 90s), Excel was horrible at that time. As I rember UBS and their brilliant option team at that time was using Wingz running on Steve Jobs was it Nextel? the computer company he was building up when he took a leave from apple....Both Steve Jobs computers and Wingz was superior to most other products. Still Nextel did not pick up volumes, neither did Wingz....Just a proving Marketing can be more important than having the best product.... My option system back then let me view Greeks for whole option portfolios in 3D when other traders was in the "excel-stone age" , it was a great time.
Last edited by
Collector on January 18th, 2007, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.