May 7th, 2004, 8:33 pm
There is a new book just published about January, 2004:QUANTITATIVE TRADING STRATEGIES by Lars Kestner, V.P. Equity Derivatives Trading, Citibank Corp. & Invest. BankChapter 11 NEW TECHNIQUES IN MONEY MANAGEMENT(included the follow sections, amongst others)THE KELLY CRITERIA [ . . . I don't recall, but Kestner may have just been summarizing Kelly rather than advocating it . . . ]VINCES OPTIMAL F (pg. 316) Ralph Vince was the first to apply Kelly's work to trading (1990). Vince calculates the optimal leverage point using trade-by-trade returns. His version of "optimal f" is solved by maximizing the ending wealth of a series of trades by betting a fixed percentage of the largest losing trade. The idea is that the largest losing trade will occur at some point, so we risk some fraction of the largest loss, which maximizes ending wealth. Although Vince's method should yield beneficial results, using only daily return data from a strategy will provide a tighter, better measure of optimal leverage due to increased number of data points. Vince's method suffers if the number of trades is small enough that the ending wealth curve becomes jagged. When the ending wealth curve is not smooth, it becomes difficult to determine the true optimal leverage point.AN IMPROVED METHOD FOR CALCULATING OPTIMAL LEVERAGE I believe the best method for calculating optimal leverage involves maximizing the median ending wealth. Harry Markowitz (1959) showed that maximizing median wealth is equivalent to maximizing the mean logarithmic return . . .Does the above explain why a number of Wilmotters have commented that they think "Optimal f" is a bit questionable?
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