July 24th, 2004, 8:16 pm
In theory yes, in practice, no.The primary inputs to the CMT model are the average closing bid (that is, averaged from different dealers, but never averaging bids on different bonds) yields of the active on-the-run securities. Your 76 and 48 month securities are not likely to be included because there will be more recently-issued Notes that had the same original maturity.It seems strange that the Treasury prefers to interpolate a 60 month yield from the yield on a five-year Note issued two months ago (current time to maturity, 58 months) than avoid interpolation by using, say, a seven-year Note issued two years ago (current time to maturity, 60 months). But even when there is liquidity in the seven-year Note, and even when its coupon is close enough to the current interest rates not to distort things, it still trades at a significantly higher yields than a newly-issued five-year, current coupon Note would.The CMT is a pretty good estimate of the yield at which a newly-issued treasury of the given maturity would sell for par.