What do you MEN/WOMEN think about the morgan stanley management shake up?Is Purcell gonna survive? or everything is gonna swing on its head and the departed/ing execs could stage a coup? off course they will need help of the leftover disgruntled bigwigs.and esp, during this poaching time, who would profit the most in terms of the trade...?Someone please tell me how to get a piece of it as an individual investor? Personally, I dont expect a huge movement in the MWD stock price in terms of percentage change, but I guess next few months are gonna be the most volatile..What dya say ?????????

guess the trade is long GS short MSDW till purcell is out ...

that's a dangerous trade. if mwd gets taken out, the stock could go to $100. the stock could tank also. i'd be extremely careful about shorting mwd.

if you don't think the stock is really going to move much, options might be an idea. the vols spiked alot (10 day vol is 36, 100 day is 22). some of this is reflected in the option implied vols. so you might want to sell some expensive vol.another trade, if you don't think the stock is going to move much, you could do a covered call - buy mwd @ $56, sell Jan 06 $60 strike calls @ $4. excluding transaction costs, assuming stock price y, you make below $52: y - $52between $52 and $64: y - $56 + $4over $64: $8

" if you don't think the stock is really going to move much, options might be an idea. the vols spiked alot (10 day vol is 36, 100 day is 22). some of this is reflected in the option implied vols. so you might want to sell some expensive vol."are you talking about implied vol here? if yes, whats the way to calculate 10, 100 or 30 day implied vol?

QuoteRe: if mwd gets taken out, the stock could go to $100What firms do you think would want all or part of MWD?

QuoteIs Purcell gonna survive? or everything is gonna swing on its head and the departed/ing execs could stage a coup? off course they will need help of the leftover disgruntled bigwigs.Some salient points:Purcell is a former career McKinsey consultant / Dean Witter Discover exec (a former subsidiary of Sears)The MWD Board is stacked with ex-McKinsey alums/Sears guysThere are no career Morgan Stanley guys on the boardThe dissenting ex-Morgan Stanely execs don't have the votes to make a differenceSo...what if Purcell has the support of the Board...and he's happy to replace top-notch guys with younger, cheaper altenatives (a McKinsey trademark: up or out, churn the staff 20% per annum and keep the blood fresh...)...so life goes on...Morgan Stanley's market share continues to slip...and hopefully they make it up with lower costs...not an exciting scenario for shareholders given MWD's valuation premium vs. peers......if you are long the stock...your bet is that the dissenters can energize institutional holders...or flush out a (presumably friendly?) bidder for all or part of the company...Lastly, does a split-up make sense...should credit cards be sold...there would be many takers....does it make sense to split the retail flow off from the asset management and investment banking businesses...?

>> What firms do you think would want all or part of MWD? The removal of the potential barrier of entrenched management shouldn't be taken too lightly as a catalyst to push an acquisition/merger attempt forward. Granted it would be sizable. As far as who would be capable and able to capitalize (read axe people and/or acquire new business exposure) on synergies, there certainly is a limited list (BofA, Wells Fargo, HSBC..). But with management shaken up, your inclusion of "part" of MWD becomes all the more relevant.Many acquisitions have astounded me in the past........one involving MWD wouldn't be particularly spectacular.

QuoteOriginally posted by: cometopapaif you don't think the stock is really going to move much, options might be an idea. the vols spiked alot (10 day vol is 36, 100 day is 22). some of this is reflected in the option implied vols. so you might want to sell some expensive vol.another trade, if you don't think the stock is going to move much, you could do a covered call - buy mwd @ $56, sell Jan 06 $60 strike calls @ $4. excluding transaction costs, assuming stock price y, you make below $52: y - $52between $52 and $64: y - $56 + $4over $64: $8QuoteOriginally posted by: cometopapaThat's a dangerous trade. if mwd gets taken out, the stock could go to $100. the stock could tank also. i'd be extremely careful about shorting mwd.I'm confused, in one post, you say the stock is likely to make a large move, and in another you propose selling vol on the stock?I do agree that vol (and perhaps vol skew) is the way to play this one, but I'm biased.The pair with Goldman is not obvious to me, given that a management issue like this could also affect other players. MWD vs XLF might be a better pair.

Quote...certainly is a limited list (BofA, Wells Fargo, HSBC..).BofA and HSBC have been names floated about...but when I think of the Robbie Stephens fiasco and the "stuck in the mud" culture commercial banking culture of HSBC, I am skeptical either company could retain even the mailroom staff at Morgan Stanley...it would be happy hunting season for all (except Morgan Stanley)!

Anyone else think that Studzinski being at HSBC at least makes things a little more interesting....

Quote--------------------------------------------------------------------------------I'm confused, in one post, you say the stock is likely to make a large move, and in another you propose selling vol on the stock?I do agree that vol (and perhaps vol skew) is the way to play this one, but I'm biased.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------the only trade that i (personally) would put on would be to buy mwd. but tripps said that he didn't expect a big move in stock so if that is the case, then i would sell vol with a covered call because i think that there is much less likelihood of the stock going down (where you'd lose money)

Morgan Stanley is not going down or up,Its the execs who will....its a tug of war that will last almost one year, and will exhibit huge volatility in stocks...any movements in stock will be temporary.In one year time there will be a NEW CEO, Purcell will be history.Lobbies will break down...if anyone thinks what I say makes sense then bet on the volatility, and the right time is NOW.One question, do you guyz think the Discover spin off is going to result in appreciation of mwd stock? if yes then - how and - by how much and - for how long?

Is this realistic? From the FT----------------------European Comment: Morgan Stanley tempts EU rivals Published: April 7 2005 21:48 | Last updated: April 7 2005 21:48With Morgan Stanley increasingly under siege from dissident shareholders and former executives - not to mention some high profile lawsuits - the Wall Street investment bank is beginning to whet European appetites. There are mutterings that several European banks have started studying a possible takeover, while others are likely to follow suit. Potential candidates include France's Société Générale and BNP Paribas, while HSBC is considered a natural buyer of Discover, the credit-card operation Morgan Stanley wants to spin off. It could all turn out a pipe dream, but Morgan Stanley's current plight could nonetheless present a "once in a lifetime opportunity" for a big European bank, says a French banker. After all, the dollar is weak, many large European banks are flush with cash and European cross-border banking consolidation remains frustratingly slow. Apart from last year's Santander-Abbey deal and the current arduous attempts by ABN Amro and Spain's BBVA to break down Italy's banking barriers, consolidation in Europe has largely been restricted to national borders. So rather than wasting time trying to branch out in Europe, the likes of BNP or Royal Bank of Scotland have been buying US banks. For many, the idea of the French buying a Wall Street investment house, let alone Morgan Stanley, is inconceivable. Yet with its 1998 acquisition of Banker's Trust, Deutsche Bank set a precedent. And as one Parisian banker says: "There is a short window out there making even the impossible possible."

QuoteOriginally posted by: davidh96Is this realistic? From the FT------------------ITS ANOTHER MOVE IN THE POWER GAME, IT IS REALISTIC, I DEFINITELY SEE HSBC AS A POTENTIAL GOBBLER.THATS IS WHY IT WILL PROVOKE PREPARATION OR REACTION, OUTCOME OF EITHER ONE IS DESIRABLE BY THE NOBLE 8.btw there were 3 posts on FT.com within 1 hr of purcell talk to employees in london, the bottom 2 came within 5 mins interval and are from the same reporters...- [$$] European Comment: Morgan Stanley tempts EU rivals ]Text at FT.com (Thu 4:50pm NY Time) - [$$] Performance, personality, pure snobbery Text at FT.com (Thu 3:40pm NY Time) - [$$] Purcell declares Morgan battle over Text at FT.com (Thu 3:35pm NY Time)