August 19th, 2002, 9:07 am
I've watched the quant job market go from "BSc needed, but quantitative MSc would be nice" in the job ads to "PhD minimum required". While the job market is currently "in the dog house" so to speak, it wouldn't surprise me that much if in a few years time "3 years post-doc research required" started to appear on some of the ads !On the basis that the job market is currently saturated, I've had a few thoughts about what might be in demand in the future - I'm trying to look 5 years from now. I know that my "future-prediction goggles" are rather clouded and certainly don't claim 100% accuracy, but it's a best guess. Any comments would be appreciated on my thoughts.1) Structured products are generally sold to sophisticated investors, as opposed to retail investors. I can't imagine many CDOs being sold to widows and orphans ! In particular insurers (general and life) and pension funds are often on the look-out for a product that will solve a particular problem for them - i.e. they want a product whose payoff has a certain profile in order to fit the needs of the life/pension fund, rather than just because a product has a sexy name. However, an insurer / pension fund has its investment needs defined by an actuary, or someone with a similiar role. Conclusion ? While actuaries have in the past looked at vanilla investments - i.e. equities, Govt bonds and a few corporate bonds and not much else - there may be a need in the future for those who can both do the quant stuff and cope with the actuarial stuff. How many PhD quants could really do the analysis needed on a pension or life fund ? Do the recent changes in the actuarial exams signify a sea change in attitude by the UK Institute of Actuaries to bridge the quant-actuary gap ?2) The prospectus for any structured investment is often over 100 pages long and essentially full of legal blurb. Most lawyers can add up a column of numbers, but their maths skills don't go much beyond this. Anything to do with modelling cashflows is usually beyond them. Conclusion ? There may be a need in the future for quants with a legal training.Comments and discussion from all are welcomedMichael