December 2nd, 2005, 9:55 am
QuoteOriginally posted by: INFIDELQuoteOriginally posted by: TraderJoeQuoteINFIDEL: Maybe there are IBs out there that recognize potential to think and contribute deep insights rather than the ability to work in an assembly line.It's not as black or white as this, but at least put that you've read some Hull on your CV. And who is this world famous prof you worked with?TJ.He was a very well known Russian in the condensed matter community (one of Russia's best). Actually, I've read (but not worked through) Hull, as well as a number of papers in SIAM and some put out by the Oxford Uni group. Because of my utter lack of experience in the field, one thing bothers me immensely, especially when reading Hull: what's the relationship of the models to the real world? Hull seems to be full of toy models and I kept wondering how could any of this be realistic? I kept baulking at reading almost any sentence or claim, and spending further time deriving something or doing the exercises, because he seems to be off with the fairies. I would very much like to see a solid connection between model and reality. With the Oxford papers, which involve a number of concepts and techniques from fluid mechanics, I was very impressed by the complexity and beauty of the edifices they'd created -- but again, the question kept nagging me, "how can this rational model be realistic?" It seems as if the game is to create a PDE of "society", which is precisely what Karl Popper argued against in "The Poverty of Historicism". In reality, there seem to be so many influences on prices (macroeconomic, historical, sellers' neuroses etc.) that are way outside of any model that could even be written down. So present models must work only for a narrow set of circumstances/parameters. What are they? (And I'm sure they work -- look at the success of Societe Generale, in a thread in this forum this week.)At some stage (even if now isn't the right time or place) I would very much like to be convinced why Quantitative Finance works, and under what circumstances. Or is it all just luck? But to do this, I'd need to talk to expert quants, and not just any of them, but the ones who question everything and formulate their own viewpoint.You don't need to talk to experienced quants for this. Most books and research literature do talk about the limitations of the models starting with the falseness of lognormality, volatiility smiles etc. I am surprised that you haven't come across this. Also note that the large number of factors affecting prices is precisely the reason why normal distributions are a somewhat good approximation. It is the finiteness of the factors and their unknowability that is the real problem - I'm being a bit loose here.
Last edited by
energydude on December 1st, 2005, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.