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ytfloyd
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Joined: July 14th, 2002, 3:00 am

Freight derivatives

January 31st, 2006, 8:34 pm

Hello all,Curious if anybody has experience with or can point me to a source on modelling forward curves where the forwards settle against a monthly average of spot. Thanks in advance,yt
 
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APD
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Joined: September 3rd, 2004, 10:29 am

Freight derivatives

February 2nd, 2006, 10:52 am

With forward curves for freight the forward point is the expected average of that month. For instance the value on Imarex at the moment for TD3 April is the expected average across April. Maybe I am missing the point of your question. Whilst there is an increasing volume of speculative trade in Freight Forward agreements (FFAs) most of the volume is still people hedging their short physical positions - ie I've won the tender and am going to be getting X bbls of Oil in month Y at point Z am de facto short freight. As most of the tenders for physical oil are at fixed points in the month and the freight derivs are on particualr routes the derivs market prices tend to do very little except when the physical hedgers are in town. This means that you often see prices unchanged for several days on a particualr route with sudden substantial changes - leading to really messy distributions of returns.For Wet forward curves just use Imarex numbers, for dry forward curves use clarksons forward curves.