July 16th, 2006, 12:20 pm
Correlation and changes in correlation is often used to 'observe' market sentiment and changes in market sentiment. An honours student, Manson, a few years back devised a strategy whereby he would invest in three industries that had the highest increase in correlation, and that passed some previous returns criteria. Essentially it is based in Barberis and Schleifer's style investing. I think it had a Shrpe ratio of about 0.29 for a period where the market was about 0.15. So there is some scope.Sometimes the correlation can be represented with a deeper motion of causality, but not always (see Wikipedia article on correlation implies causality (false logic)). There is some evidence that ECNs lead Nasdaq on the same stocks, and some stocks like BHP can lead similar stocks like RIO.All the above however, come with a big conditional!