November 8th, 2006, 8:08 am
Has anyone tried calibrating a reduced form loss model (such as the SPA model or the Schonbucher version) to both the tranche spreads and the index option premiums? The index option premiums are usually consistent with a lognormal distribution of the option payoff (which includes defaults prior to the expiry + the standard CDS option payoff on the remaining notional) as this is the standard model (c.f. Bloomberg documentation, Pedersen's Lehman paper). Therefore, in the case of a default, the index spread must reduce to preserve a lognormal distribution in the payoff. This is exacerbated by the fact that there is a greater default probability at higher spreads.Most indices have low base correlations... especially in the equity tranche. This means that the loss distribution is "largely" constrained to the lower loss tranches. However, when I try to fit a particular parametric form to the default intensity (conditional on a given number of defaults) and hence the transition rates and loss distribution, I cannot find a parametric form which reduces the spread upon default but allows a loss distribution consistent with the tranche spreads.Anyone had any success with this?