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mapleleafs
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Joined: August 24th, 2005, 2:13 pm

Swap Spread vs Treasury

November 23rd, 2006, 5:57 am

Why Swap Spreads tend to negatively correlated with Treasury rates themselves???
 
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DavidJN
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Joined: July 14th, 2002, 3:00 am

Swap Spread vs Treasury

November 23rd, 2006, 12:04 pm

One story sometimes heard about this is that the demand for yield pickup increases when Treasury rates are low. Higher demand implies a lower yield.
 
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miltenpoint
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Joined: February 23rd, 2006, 1:40 pm

Swap Spread vs Treasury

November 23rd, 2006, 1:52 pm

Could you expand on this a little more - I've found that swap spreads usually decline as treasury yield decline and vice versa
 
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vegavexity
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Joined: October 11th, 2005, 11:24 am

Swap Spread vs Treasury

November 23rd, 2006, 2:29 pm

The correlation depends on the time frame.. In the late 90s spreads were negatively correlated with USTs. As Treasuries rallied, spreads widened to compensate, and all-in yields moved significantly less than Treasury ylds. (Consequently, swaption vol traded a lot lower than UST vol)Over the past 5-7 yrs, however, swaps have gone from being a credit instrument to the primary interest rate liquidity instrument. The was partially the result of reduced Treasury supply, and the resulting repo "problems," but also the result of a maturing swap market with a number of credit mitigating factors. Over the past 5-7 yrs, swap spreads have been positively correlated with Treasury yields. When mkt participant want to get long the mkt, they will buy USTs AND receive on swaps, compressing both.