January 4th, 2007, 10:02 am
What do you mean by "representative number of successes"? Regardless of n<N (where n is the size of the sample and N is the size of the population), there will always be some statistical discrepancy between the observed number of successes in an n-sample subpopulation versus that which would be expected from the value of N*p (the total number of successes in the entire population). For large n << N, the sigma on the sample estimate of p is SQRT(p*(1-p)/n), which implies that the sigma on the observed number of successes is roughly SQRT(n*p*(1-p)). As you can see, for n<<N, the higher the n, the better the estimate of p but the worse the error in the number of successes (n*p). As n approaches N, things change with both the sample estimate of p and the number of observed successes converging on the population values.