February 28th, 2007, 5:00 pm
If you condition on the volatility, I believe your question becomes: for what beta is dS = a S^beta dB(t), with `a' fixed, sensible?First, for beta > 1, S is not a true martingale, just a local martingale, so you probably don't want that. Then, for beta <= 1, there are different types of hitting behavior at S=0. For beta = 1, the point S = 0 is unreachable: this is well-known from the Black-Scholes theory.For 1/2 <= beta < 1, the point S=0 is an exit boundary, which is reachable but no boundary conditions can be supplied.An exit boundary is a trap state.For -infinity < beta < 1/2, the point S = 0 is always hit and is a regular point. The only sensible boundary condition (without a cash flow) for this last hitting case would be to kill the process when it hits. It you were talking about an interest rate, for example, then reflection would be ok also.I'm going to fix on stock prices.So, it seems that beta < 1 always forces a bankruptcy-type event, where S=0 is reached with probability onein finite time and becomes a trap from then on.If this argument is correct, it reinforces the caution associated with this model that it should only be applied to equities close toexpiration. One reason for that is the absence of volatility drift. A second reason would be that you need a time much smaller than the first expected hitting time of S = 0. But, I am not a SABR expert, so my argument is a conjecture that conditioning on the volatility path yields a reliable conclusion. Perhaps one of the SABR experts on the board could confirm/deny this.For more details on dS = S^beta dB(t), see Ch. 9 of my "Option Valuation under Stochastic Volatility" book.I give a simple formula there for the strictly positive probability of hitting S = 0 prior to time t for any beta with: -infinity < beta < 1. regards,
Last edited by
Alan on February 27th, 2007, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.